Saturday, October 31, 2009
Weekly Drought Monitor - as of October 27th, 2009
Friday, October 30, 2009
Statistics experts reject global cooling claims
FROM: USA Today
By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The Earth is still warming, not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming, according to an analysis of global temperatures by independent statistics experts.
The review of years of temperature data was conducted at the request of the Associated Press. Talk of a cooling trend has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over time. And U.S. government figures show that the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of record-keeping.
Global warming skeptics are basing their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. They say that since then, temperatures have fallen — thus, a cooling trend. But it's not that simple.
Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, dropped again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998.
"The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."
Statisticians said the ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.
By Seth Borenstein, Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The Earth is still warming, not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming, according to an analysis of global temperatures by independent statistics experts.
The review of years of temperature data was conducted at the request of the Associated Press. Talk of a cooling trend has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over time. And U.S. government figures show that the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of record-keeping.
Global warming skeptics are basing their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. They say that since then, temperatures have fallen — thus, a cooling trend. But it's not that simple.
Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, dropped again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998.
"The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."
Statisticians said the ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
How temperature data was analyzed
FROM: San Diego Union-Tribune
By The Associated Press
The Associated Press sought independent statistical analyses of global temperatures to determine if there is a true cooling of Earth's climate.
The AP contacted University of South Carolina statistics professor John Grego, a longtime reliable statistics source. In addition, the American Statistical Association sent an e-mail request from the AP seeking statisticians willing to examine certain sets of numbers and look for trends without being told what those numbers represented.
Three professors of statistics agreed: David Peterson, retired from Duke University; Mack Shelley, director of public policy and administration at Iowa State University; and Edward Melnick from New York University.
Each was given two spreadsheets, neither of which had any indication they were temperature data.
One spreadsheet was year-by-year global temperature changes from 1880 to 2009, adjusted through most of this year from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's ground measurements. The other was year-to-year temperature changes from 1979-2009 gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville from atmospheric measurements by satellite.
None of the experts detected a downward, or cooling, trend in the numbers. All saw a distinct upward trend.
This type of blind test is a valid way of seeking statistical help by trying to keep the statisticians' personal beliefs out of any analysis, said Alan Karr, director of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences. But there is a downside from keeping statisticians in the dark because it ties their hands a bit and may make it difficult to determine trends from variation, he said.
After their analysis, all the statisticians were told that the numbers represented temperature changes. All stuck by their assessments.
By The Associated Press
The Associated Press sought independent statistical analyses of global temperatures to determine if there is a true cooling of Earth's climate.
The AP contacted University of South Carolina statistics professor John Grego, a longtime reliable statistics source. In addition, the American Statistical Association sent an e-mail request from the AP seeking statisticians willing to examine certain sets of numbers and look for trends without being told what those numbers represented.
Three professors of statistics agreed: David Peterson, retired from Duke University; Mack Shelley, director of public policy and administration at Iowa State University; and Edward Melnick from New York University.
Each was given two spreadsheets, neither of which had any indication they were temperature data.
One spreadsheet was year-by-year global temperature changes from 1880 to 2009, adjusted through most of this year from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's ground measurements. The other was year-to-year temperature changes from 1979-2009 gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville from atmospheric measurements by satellite.
None of the experts detected a downward, or cooling, trend in the numbers. All saw a distinct upward trend.
This type of blind test is a valid way of seeking statistical help by trying to keep the statisticians' personal beliefs out of any analysis, said Alan Karr, director of the National Institute of Statistical Sciences. But there is a downside from keeping statisticians in the dark because it ties their hands a bit and may make it difficult to determine trends from variation, he said.
After their analysis, all the statisticians were told that the numbers represented temperature changes. All stuck by their assessments.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
EPA, Baja government join for air-quality studies
FROM: San Diego Union-Tribune
By Sandra Dibble
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
TIJUANA — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Baja California yesterday announced their collaboration in two air-quality studies on the U.S.-Mexico border in California.
One study will evaluate the condition of a network of 13 air-quality monitoring stations in Baja California. The stations, set up with support from the EPA and the California Air Resources Board, were turned over to the state of Baja California in 2007.
The second study involves updating a 1999 emissions inventory, focusing on Tijuana, Rosarito Beach, Tecate and Mexicali.
The studies, costing $173,000, are being funded by the EPA through the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, a binational agency created under a side agreement to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
By Sandra Dibble
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
TIJUANA — The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Baja California yesterday announced their collaboration in two air-quality studies on the U.S.-Mexico border in California.
One study will evaluate the condition of a network of 13 air-quality monitoring stations in Baja California. The stations, set up with support from the EPA and the California Air Resources Board, were turned over to the state of Baja California in 2007.
The second study involves updating a 1999 emissions inventory, focusing on Tijuana, Rosarito Beach, Tecate and Mexicali.
The studies, costing $173,000, are being funded by the EPA through the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, a binational agency created under a side agreement to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
State hopes to use storm water to counter drought
FROM: Los Angeles Times
By Susan Carpenter
During an average wet season, the city of Los Angeles sends 100 million gallons of storm water into the Pacific each day. Because it carries various effluents to the ocean, that water had, for many years, been handled as pollution.
But a new California law seeks to expand the role of storm water management to incorporate strategies that will use it as a resource.
The Stormwater Resource Planning Act, SB 790, allows municipalities to tap funds from two of the state's existing bond funds for projects that reduce or reuse storm water, recharge the groundwater supply, create green spaces and enhance wildlife habitats. The measure takes effect Jan. 1.
"I was proud to carry 790," said Sen. Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills), who wrote the bill. "It uses existing funds to create new water supplies out of water that in the past was simply treated and dumped. This bill helps create a significant new source of water for our always water-short state."
With California in the throes of a budget crisis and a water crisis -- the state is in its third year of drought -- the competition will probably be fierce among the many government agencies that manage the state's storm water.
SB 790 allows agencies to apply for and, if approved, draw on funds remaining from Proposition 50, the $3.44-billion water security bond passed by California voters in 2002, and Proposition 84, the $5.4-billion safe drinking water bond passed in 2006. Exactly how much money is left from those bonds is unclear.
L.A.'s Bureau of Sanitation, which has received $22 million in bond funds from the state for various storm water projects, is expected to apply for more funds through SB 790.
According to Wing Tam, assistant division manager for the bureau's watershed protection division, the money will fund an expansion of the city's rainwater harvesting projects and green infrastructure, including large cisterns, stream restoration, biofiltration and downspout disconnections.
"It's important for us to capture storm water and use it as a resource," said Tam, who noted that the city's paradigm shift from viewing storm water as pollution to seeing it as a resource has been a gradual process evolving through 10 years of pilot projects.
"Not only does that help us with water quality, but quality of life. A wetland park deals with water quality, but it also creates a park for people to use. It's multiuse. That's our future," Tam said.
By Susan Carpenter
During an average wet season, the city of Los Angeles sends 100 million gallons of storm water into the Pacific each day. Because it carries various effluents to the ocean, that water had, for many years, been handled as pollution.
But a new California law seeks to expand the role of storm water management to incorporate strategies that will use it as a resource.
The Stormwater Resource Planning Act, SB 790, allows municipalities to tap funds from two of the state's existing bond funds for projects that reduce or reuse storm water, recharge the groundwater supply, create green spaces and enhance wildlife habitats. The measure takes effect Jan. 1.
"I was proud to carry 790," said Sen. Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills), who wrote the bill. "It uses existing funds to create new water supplies out of water that in the past was simply treated and dumped. This bill helps create a significant new source of water for our always water-short state."
With California in the throes of a budget crisis and a water crisis -- the state is in its third year of drought -- the competition will probably be fierce among the many government agencies that manage the state's storm water.
SB 790 allows agencies to apply for and, if approved, draw on funds remaining from Proposition 50, the $3.44-billion water security bond passed by California voters in 2002, and Proposition 84, the $5.4-billion safe drinking water bond passed in 2006. Exactly how much money is left from those bonds is unclear.
L.A.'s Bureau of Sanitation, which has received $22 million in bond funds from the state for various storm water projects, is expected to apply for more funds through SB 790.
According to Wing Tam, assistant division manager for the bureau's watershed protection division, the money will fund an expansion of the city's rainwater harvesting projects and green infrastructure, including large cisterns, stream restoration, biofiltration and downspout disconnections.
"It's important for us to capture storm water and use it as a resource," said Tam, who noted that the city's paradigm shift from viewing storm water as pollution to seeing it as a resource has been a gradual process evolving through 10 years of pilot projects.
"Not only does that help us with water quality, but quality of life. A wetland park deals with water quality, but it also creates a park for people to use. It's multiuse. That's our future," Tam said.
Monday, October 26, 2009
EPA commits to set air pollution rules by 2011
FROM: Los Angeles Times
Oil- and coal-fired power plants would be forced to reduce mercury emissions under a deal that ends a long-standing suit by environmentalists.
By Kim Geiger and Jim Tankersley
Reporting from Washington - The Environmental Protection Agency would require oil- and coal-burning power plants to dramatically reduce hazardous air pollution under an agreement announced Friday that ends a long-standing lawsuit filed by environmentalists.
The agreement -- which would probably boost electricity prices but could potentially save thousands of lives -- commits the EPA to set pollution standards by 2011 for the power plants that are responsible for nearly half of all emissions of mercury, which can harm brain development in fetuses and children.
Once the EPA sets the standards, many power plants would be forced to install pollution scrubbers that capture heavy metals such as mercury -- along with particulates such as soot. Currently, less than one-third of those plants employ scrubbers.
Environmentalists hailed the decision and equated it, in environmental protection terms, with EPA moves this year to begin limiting greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, factories, power plants and other major emitters.
"This is the Holy Grail for pollution control," said Jim Pew, an attorney at Earthjustice, one of the groups that brought the suit.
The effect of the new rules is expected to be greatest in the East and Midwest where coal-fired power plants are most common. On the West Coast, such plants are rare, and though California gets large amounts of power from coal-fired plants in Nevada, pollution tends to spread over less populated areas to the east.
Environmentalists estimate that the new rules could save 35,000 lives each year by 2025. Those projections are based on an EPA analysis of the effects of a similar proposed law regulating sulfur dioxide, a pollutant that lodges deep in the lungs, causing premature heart attack, stroke and cardiac arrest.
Installing scrubbers would reduce most emission of air toxins, including sulfur dioxide.
According to a 2004 study by a group of Northeast air quality agencies, the new rules could result in a 90% reduction in mercury emissions.
"This power-plant rule could reduce sulfur dioxide levels by 80% to 90%," said John Walke, clean air director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, another party to the suit. The scrubbers are "not cheap, but you see the health benefits."
Representatives of the power industry said that by setting targets that would apply to all plants -- including smaller plants used only intermittently -- the new standards would push electricity prices up and encourage industrial consumers to move abroad in search of weaker, less expensive emission standards.
Industry lobbyists said Friday that they were unable to estimate the exact cost increases but predicted they would be high.
The EPA had been required under the Clean Air Act of 1990 to issue its rules by the end of 2002, but the Bush administration argued at the time that such rules were unnecessary.
The environmental groups that brought the suit say that the EPA has been stalling.
The agency said in a statement that "addressing hazardous air pollutant emissions from utilities is a high priority," adding that it began the rule-making process in July and plans to issue proposed standards by March 2011.
"The agency is committed to developing a strategy to reduce harmful emissions from these facilities, which threaten the air we all breathe," said the EPA.
The power plant industry has spent years trying to find an alternative to the looming EPA rule-making, whereby standards would be set based on the current emission rates of the cleanest 12% of coal- and oil-fired plants.
With the backing of the Bush administration in previous years, the industry has been pushing to create an emissions market in which plants could trade emissions allowances instead of being forced to hit set targets.
That approach, known as the Mercury Rule, was proposed by the EPA under the Bush administration, but it was struck down by the courts, which ruled that it did not comply with the Clean Air Act.
"Obviously, we wanted the [Mercury Rule] to go forward because the rule would have given us more flexibility," said Frank Maisano of the law firm Bracewell & Giuliani, which represents power plant operators. "The Clean Air Act just doesn't have the flexibility to allow us to do this creative thinking."
Maisano also said that the Obama administration is more in line with the environmentalists' goals.
"This really seems to be the environmentalists negotiating with themselves," he said. "Because the new EPA is certainly much more in agreement with the environmental community than they had been in the last eight years."
Oil- and coal-fired power plants would be forced to reduce mercury emissions under a deal that ends a long-standing suit by environmentalists.
By Kim Geiger and Jim Tankersley
Reporting from Washington - The Environmental Protection Agency would require oil- and coal-burning power plants to dramatically reduce hazardous air pollution under an agreement announced Friday that ends a long-standing lawsuit filed by environmentalists.
The agreement -- which would probably boost electricity prices but could potentially save thousands of lives -- commits the EPA to set pollution standards by 2011 for the power plants that are responsible for nearly half of all emissions of mercury, which can harm brain development in fetuses and children.
Once the EPA sets the standards, many power plants would be forced to install pollution scrubbers that capture heavy metals such as mercury -- along with particulates such as soot. Currently, less than one-third of those plants employ scrubbers.
Environmentalists hailed the decision and equated it, in environmental protection terms, with EPA moves this year to begin limiting greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles, factories, power plants and other major emitters.
"This is the Holy Grail for pollution control," said Jim Pew, an attorney at Earthjustice, one of the groups that brought the suit.
The effect of the new rules is expected to be greatest in the East and Midwest where coal-fired power plants are most common. On the West Coast, such plants are rare, and though California gets large amounts of power from coal-fired plants in Nevada, pollution tends to spread over less populated areas to the east.
Environmentalists estimate that the new rules could save 35,000 lives each year by 2025. Those projections are based on an EPA analysis of the effects of a similar proposed law regulating sulfur dioxide, a pollutant that lodges deep in the lungs, causing premature heart attack, stroke and cardiac arrest.
Installing scrubbers would reduce most emission of air toxins, including sulfur dioxide.
According to a 2004 study by a group of Northeast air quality agencies, the new rules could result in a 90% reduction in mercury emissions.
"This power-plant rule could reduce sulfur dioxide levels by 80% to 90%," said John Walke, clean air director at the Natural Resources Defense Council, another party to the suit. The scrubbers are "not cheap, but you see the health benefits."
Representatives of the power industry said that by setting targets that would apply to all plants -- including smaller plants used only intermittently -- the new standards would push electricity prices up and encourage industrial consumers to move abroad in search of weaker, less expensive emission standards.
Industry lobbyists said Friday that they were unable to estimate the exact cost increases but predicted they would be high.
The EPA had been required under the Clean Air Act of 1990 to issue its rules by the end of 2002, but the Bush administration argued at the time that such rules were unnecessary.
The environmental groups that brought the suit say that the EPA has been stalling.
The agency said in a statement that "addressing hazardous air pollutant emissions from utilities is a high priority," adding that it began the rule-making process in July and plans to issue proposed standards by March 2011.
"The agency is committed to developing a strategy to reduce harmful emissions from these facilities, which threaten the air we all breathe," said the EPA.
The power plant industry has spent years trying to find an alternative to the looming EPA rule-making, whereby standards would be set based on the current emission rates of the cleanest 12% of coal- and oil-fired plants.
With the backing of the Bush administration in previous years, the industry has been pushing to create an emissions market in which plants could trade emissions allowances instead of being forced to hit set targets.
That approach, known as the Mercury Rule, was proposed by the EPA under the Bush administration, but it was struck down by the courts, which ruled that it did not comply with the Clean Air Act.
"Obviously, we wanted the [Mercury Rule] to go forward because the rule would have given us more flexibility," said Frank Maisano of the law firm Bracewell & Giuliani, which represents power plant operators. "The Clean Air Act just doesn't have the flexibility to allow us to do this creative thinking."
Maisano also said that the Obama administration is more in line with the environmentalists' goals.
"This really seems to be the environmentalists negotiating with themselves," he said. "Because the new EPA is certainly much more in agreement with the environmental community than they had been in the last eight years."
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Poll: Americans' belief in global warming cools
FROM: USA Today
By Dina Cappiello, Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The number of Americans who believe there is solid evidence the Earthis warming because of pollution is at its lowest point in three years, according to a survey released Thursday.
The poll of 1,500 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that only 57% believe there is strong scientific evidence the Earth has gotten hotter over the past few decades, and as a result, people are viewing the situation as less serious. That's down from 77% in 2006, and 71% in April 2008.
The steepest drop occurred during the past year, as Congress and the Obama administration have taken steps to control heat-trapping emissions for the first time and international negotiations for a new treaty to slow global warming have been underway. At the same time, there has been mounting scientific evidence of climate change — from melting ice caps to the world's oceans hitting the highest monthly recorded temperatures this summer.
The poll was released a day after 18 scientific organizations wrote Congress to reaffirm the consensus behind global warming. A federal government report Thursday found that global warming is upsetting the Arctic's thermostat.
But while the evidence appears clear, only about a third, or 36% of the poll respondents feel that human activities — such as pollution from power plants, factories and automobiles — are behind a temperature increase. That's the first decline since 2006.
"The priority that people give to pollution and environmental concerns and a whole host of other issues is down because of the economy and because of the focus on other things," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the research center, which conducted the poll from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4.
"When the focus is on other things, people forget and see these issues as less grave."
Andrew Weaver, a professor of climate analysis at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, said politics could be drowning out scientific awareness.
"It's a combination of poor communication by scientists, a lousy summer in the Eastern United States, people mixing up weather and climate and a full-court press by public relations firms and lobby groups trying to instill a sense of uncertainty and confusion in the public," he said.
Despite misgivings about the science, half the respondents still say they support limits on greenhouse gases, even if they could lead to higher energy prices, and a majority — 56% — feel the United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change.
But many of supporters of reducing pollution have heard little to nothing about cap-and-trade, the main mechanism for reducing greenhouse gases favored by the White House and central to legislation passed by the House and a bill the Senate will take up next week.
Under cap-and-trade, a price is put on each ton of pollution, and businesses can buy and sell permits to meet emissions limits.
"Perhaps the most interesting finding in this poll ... is that the more Americans learn about cap-and-trade, the more they oppose cap-and-trade," said Sen. James Inhofe, a Republican who opposes the Senate bill and has questioned global warming science. Republicans in general have grown even more steadfast in their opposition. A majority — 57% — now say there is no hard evidence of global warming, up from 42% last year, according to the poll.
Other results of the survey also suggest that it will be tough politically to enact a law limiting emissions of global warming pollution. While three-quarters of Democrats believe the evidence of a warming planet is solid, and nearly half believe the problem is serious, far fewer conservative and moderate Democrats see the problem as grave as they did last year.
Regional differences were also detected. People living in the Midwest and mountainous areas of the West are far less likely to view global warming as a serious problem and to support limits on greenhouse gases than those in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Both the House and Senate bills have been drafted byDemocratic lawmakers from Massachusetts and California.
One of those lawmakers, Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, told reporters Thursday that she was happy with the results, given the interests and industry groups fighting the bill.
"Today, to get 57% saying that the climate is warming is good, because today everybody is grumpy about everything," Boxer said. "Science will win the day in America. Science always wins the day."
Earlier polls, from different organizations, have not detected a growing skepticism about the science behind global warming.
Since 1997, the percentage of Americans that believe the Earth is heating up has remained constant — at around 80% — in polling done by Jon Krosnick of Stanford University. Krosnick, who has been conducting surveys on attitudes about global warming since 1993 was surprised by the Pew results.
He described the decline in the Pew results as "implausible," saying there is nothing that could have caused it.
By Dina Cappiello, Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The number of Americans who believe there is solid evidence the Earthis warming because of pollution is at its lowest point in three years, according to a survey released Thursday.
The poll of 1,500 adults by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that only 57% believe there is strong scientific evidence the Earth has gotten hotter over the past few decades, and as a result, people are viewing the situation as less serious. That's down from 77% in 2006, and 71% in April 2008.
The steepest drop occurred during the past year, as Congress and the Obama administration have taken steps to control heat-trapping emissions for the first time and international negotiations for a new treaty to slow global warming have been underway. At the same time, there has been mounting scientific evidence of climate change — from melting ice caps to the world's oceans hitting the highest monthly recorded temperatures this summer.
The poll was released a day after 18 scientific organizations wrote Congress to reaffirm the consensus behind global warming. A federal government report Thursday found that global warming is upsetting the Arctic's thermostat.
But while the evidence appears clear, only about a third, or 36% of the poll respondents feel that human activities — such as pollution from power plants, factories and automobiles — are behind a temperature increase. That's the first decline since 2006.
"The priority that people give to pollution and environmental concerns and a whole host of other issues is down because of the economy and because of the focus on other things," said Andrew Kohut, the director of the research center, which conducted the poll from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4.
"When the focus is on other things, people forget and see these issues as less grave."
Andrew Weaver, a professor of climate analysis at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, said politics could be drowning out scientific awareness.
"It's a combination of poor communication by scientists, a lousy summer in the Eastern United States, people mixing up weather and climate and a full-court press by public relations firms and lobby groups trying to instill a sense of uncertainty and confusion in the public," he said.
Despite misgivings about the science, half the respondents still say they support limits on greenhouse gases, even if they could lead to higher energy prices, and a majority — 56% — feel the United States should join other countries in setting standards to address global climate change.
But many of supporters of reducing pollution have heard little to nothing about cap-and-trade, the main mechanism for reducing greenhouse gases favored by the White House and central to legislation passed by the House and a bill the Senate will take up next week.
Under cap-and-trade, a price is put on each ton of pollution, and businesses can buy and sell permits to meet emissions limits.
"Perhaps the most interesting finding in this poll ... is that the more Americans learn about cap-and-trade, the more they oppose cap-and-trade," said Sen. James Inhofe, a Republican who opposes the Senate bill and has questioned global warming science. Republicans in general have grown even more steadfast in their opposition. A majority — 57% — now say there is no hard evidence of global warming, up from 42% last year, according to the poll.
Other results of the survey also suggest that it will be tough politically to enact a law limiting emissions of global warming pollution. While three-quarters of Democrats believe the evidence of a warming planet is solid, and nearly half believe the problem is serious, far fewer conservative and moderate Democrats see the problem as grave as they did last year.
Regional differences were also detected. People living in the Midwest and mountainous areas of the West are far less likely to view global warming as a serious problem and to support limits on greenhouse gases than those in the Northeast and on the West Coast. Both the House and Senate bills have been drafted byDemocratic lawmakers from Massachusetts and California.
One of those lawmakers, Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat, told reporters Thursday that she was happy with the results, given the interests and industry groups fighting the bill.
"Today, to get 57% saying that the climate is warming is good, because today everybody is grumpy about everything," Boxer said. "Science will win the day in America. Science always wins the day."
Earlier polls, from different organizations, have not detected a growing skepticism about the science behind global warming.
Since 1997, the percentage of Americans that believe the Earth is heating up has remained constant — at around 80% — in polling done by Jon Krosnick of Stanford University. Krosnick, who has been conducting surveys on attitudes about global warming since 1993 was surprised by the Pew results.
He described the decline in the Pew results as "implausible," saying there is nothing that could have caused it.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Changing Arctic Affecting Air, Ocean, and Everything in Between
FROM: NOAA
Despite the fact that summer 2009 had more sea ice than in 2007 or 2008, scientists are seeing drastic changes in the region from just five years ago and at rates faster than anticipated. The findings were presented today in the annual update of the Arctic Report Card, a collaborative effort of 71 national and international scientists.
“The Arctic is a special and fragile place on this planet,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than any other place on Earth — and with wide-ranging consequences. When I visited the northern corners of Alaska’s Arctic region earlier this year, I saw an area abundant with natural resources, diverse wildlife, proud local and native peoples — and a most uncertain future. This year’s Arctic Report Card underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas pollution and adapting to climate changes already under way.”
Among the changes highlighted in the 2009 update to the report card were:
-- A change in large scale wind patterns affected by the loss of summer sea ice,
-- The replacement of multi-year sea ice by first-year sea ice,
-- Warmer and fresher water in the upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas,
-- A continued loss of the Greenland ice sheet,
-- Less snow in North America and increased runoff in Siberia, and
-- The effect of the loss of sea ice on Arctic plant, animal, and fish species.
The Arctic Report Card is an annual assessment that was introduced by NOAA’s Climate Program Office in 2006 and is an example of the suite of climate services to which NOAA contributes.
Scientific assessments are key to informing our understanding of climate – how and why it is changing and what the changing conditions mean to lives and livelihoods. The Arctic Report Card established a baseline of conditions in the region at the beginning of the 21st century and the annual updates track and monitor the often quickly-changing conditions in the Arctic. Using a color-coding system of red to indicate consistent evidence of warming and yellow to indicate there are mixed signals about warming from climate indicators and species, the report card is updated annually in October and tracks Arctic data in six categories: atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land, and conditions in Greenland.
“The Arctic we see today is very different from the Arctic we saw even five years ago,” said Jackie Richter-Menge of the USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. and the report’s chief technical editor and contributing author. “It’s a warmer place with less thick and more mobile sea ice, warmer and fresher ocean water, and increased stress on caribou, reindeer, polar bears and walrus in some regions.”
The 2009 update to the report card reflects the contributions of an international team of 71 researchers from countries that include the United States of America, Canada, Belgium, China, Denmark, Japan, The Netherlands, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
The Report Card can be found at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
Despite the fact that summer 2009 had more sea ice than in 2007 or 2008, scientists are seeing drastic changes in the region from just five years ago and at rates faster than anticipated. The findings were presented today in the annual update of the Arctic Report Card, a collaborative effort of 71 national and international scientists.
“The Arctic is a special and fragile place on this planet,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than any other place on Earth — and with wide-ranging consequences. When I visited the northern corners of Alaska’s Arctic region earlier this year, I saw an area abundant with natural resources, diverse wildlife, proud local and native peoples — and a most uncertain future. This year’s Arctic Report Card underscores the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas pollution and adapting to climate changes already under way.”
Among the changes highlighted in the 2009 update to the report card were:
-- A change in large scale wind patterns affected by the loss of summer sea ice,
-- The replacement of multi-year sea ice by first-year sea ice,
-- Warmer and fresher water in the upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas,
-- A continued loss of the Greenland ice sheet,
-- Less snow in North America and increased runoff in Siberia, and
-- The effect of the loss of sea ice on Arctic plant, animal, and fish species.
The Arctic Report Card is an annual assessment that was introduced by NOAA’s Climate Program Office in 2006 and is an example of the suite of climate services to which NOAA contributes.
Scientific assessments are key to informing our understanding of climate – how and why it is changing and what the changing conditions mean to lives and livelihoods. The Arctic Report Card established a baseline of conditions in the region at the beginning of the 21st century and the annual updates track and monitor the often quickly-changing conditions in the Arctic. Using a color-coding system of red to indicate consistent evidence of warming and yellow to indicate there are mixed signals about warming from climate indicators and species, the report card is updated annually in October and tracks Arctic data in six categories: atmosphere, sea ice, biology, ocean, land, and conditions in Greenland.
“The Arctic we see today is very different from the Arctic we saw even five years ago,” said Jackie Richter-Menge of the USACE Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. and the report’s chief technical editor and contributing author. “It’s a warmer place with less thick and more mobile sea ice, warmer and fresher ocean water, and increased stress on caribou, reindeer, polar bears and walrus in some regions.”
The 2009 update to the report card reflects the contributions of an international team of 71 researchers from countries that include the United States of America, Canada, Belgium, China, Denmark, Japan, The Netherlands, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
The Report Card can be found at http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard
Friday, October 23, 2009
Palmdale parking lots to double as power plants
FROM: Los Angeles Times
The city is allowing shopping centers and business parks to install small wind turbines atop light towers in parking lots. A 17-turbine plot is already in the works at Sam's Club.
By Ann M. Simmons
In an effort to tap one of the high desert's most abundant resources, Palmdale is allowing large shopping centers and business parks to install small wind turbines in their parking lots to save on electricity costs.
Civic leaders in the Antelope Valley have taken a variety of steps in recent years to harness and adapt to the region's vast supplies of sun and wind. In Lancaster, hundreds of acres of desert landscape will be used for a huge bed of solar-thermal panels. Both Palmdale and Lancaster have taken steps to ban new lawns to help conserve water.
The plan for urban wind turbines puts Palmdale in company with blustery cities such as Buffalo, N.Y., and Cleveland that have allowed small wind farms in commercial and business districts.
Palmdale's plan clears the way for turbines no more than 60 feet high to be erected atop light standards in some parking lots.
City officials are also studying turbines that could be compatible in neighborhoods.
A Massachusetts-based firm is preparing to install what will probably be Palmdale's first wind farm -- a 17-turbine plot being developed in conjunction with Sam's Club, a members-only retail warehouse owned by Wal-Mart.
"It's nice to have the advantage that we have, a supply of renewable energy," said Benjamin Lucha, a city administrative analyst. "We have an abundance of sunlight. We have a potential for wind energy . . . and it's consistent."
Palmdale's interest in wind as a power source is part of an emerging trend in the American landscape.
Last year, 10,000 small turbines were sold to homes, farms and businesses nationwide, said Ron Stimmel, who specializes in small wind systems at the American Wind Energy Assn. in Washington, D.C. The figure represents a 78% increase over the previous year, attributed in part to cheaper prices and federal tax credits. The systems are concentrated in states with the best rebate policies -- and a good supply of wind -- including California, Wisconsin, New York, Ohio and Vermont.
"Small wind systems have a similar potential for growth as the solar industry," Stimmel said. "This is very well on its way to becoming mainstream."
Yet Palmdale officials are mindful of aesthetic concerns about wind turbines sprouting up in the city. That's why they would have to be mounted on existing light poles and be compatible in design and color with the existing light fixtures at a given site, said Assistant City Manager Laurie Lile.
For the time being, turbines are not permitted near residential properties, to avoid any disturbance from noise or vibration.
The commercial turbines "are intended not to be stand-alone like a turbine farm," Lile recently told the City Council. "They would be an accessory."
In the past, the community has been apprehensive about large wind turbines. Several years ago, the city fought plans by the Palmdale Water District to build a turbine rising 315 feet above Lake Palmdale to power its treatment plant and booster-pump facility.
Residents complained that the turbine would be a monstrous eyesore and the city filed a lawsuit citing environmental concerns. But the project ultimately moved forward, and today the water district operates the only commercial-scale turbine in the southern Antelope Valley.
The smaller turbines are getting a much warmer reception.
"I think it's an excellent idea," said Marsha Furman, 61, a Palmdale resident of 25 years and member of the Sam's Club where turbines are planned. "The wind is something we live with out here. To have the opportunity to use this technology, oh my gosh. . . . It's outstanding. I'm thrilled."
Furman said she wasn't worried about the aesthetics of the turbines because they were not expected to be "imposing, big and bulky."
Patricia Shaw, 50, the retired owner of a real estate management company, said permitting small wind turbines would help attract new companies to Palmdale.
"Any time you can reduce the cost of small businesses to operate, that just encourages more businesses to come," she said. "The cheaper you make it for a business to operate, the more people they can hire, and the better they can do."
Kory Lundberg, media manager for Wal-Mart, said the Sam's Club turbine project was embraced as part of the company's sustainability initiatives, which include zero waste and the goal to ultimately be supplied entirely by renewable energy.
Wal-mart already has one wind turbine at a store in Arkansas, Lundberg said.
The Sam's Club turbines are expected to generate 76,000 kilowatts of energy, enough "to power six single-family homes for a year," according to Lundberg.
Under a power purchase agreement, the wind development firm Deerpath Energy would own the turbines and Wal-Mart would buy the power they produce, Lundberg said.
Kellogg Warner, founder and chief executive of Deerpath Energy, said Sam's Club can expect to save 5% on energy bills, "depending on how the wind is blowing."
The Sam's Club project would be the Marblehead, Mass.-based firm's first full-scale deployment of wind turbines, according to Warner. The company has other projects in the works in Massachusetts and Texas, but considered Palmdale an ideal location to launch the venture.
"We're providing them with the ability to generate renewable power directly on site, at a cost that is competitive with the local utility cost," Warner said.According to information published by the California Energy Commission, "wind power is currently more expensive than that produced by natural gas-fired plants," but it is reliable because "the price of wind power is not affected by fuel price increases or supply disruptions." Additionally, wind power emits no pollution and turbines can be quickly installed.
"We have to all embrace new ideas," said Lile. "The downside to turbines is basically aesthetic, but we can no longer choose to be so picky aesthetically at the expense of sustainable energy."
The city is allowing shopping centers and business parks to install small wind turbines atop light towers in parking lots. A 17-turbine plot is already in the works at Sam's Club.
By Ann M. Simmons
In an effort to tap one of the high desert's most abundant resources, Palmdale is allowing large shopping centers and business parks to install small wind turbines in their parking lots to save on electricity costs.
Civic leaders in the Antelope Valley have taken a variety of steps in recent years to harness and adapt to the region's vast supplies of sun and wind. In Lancaster, hundreds of acres of desert landscape will be used for a huge bed of solar-thermal panels. Both Palmdale and Lancaster have taken steps to ban new lawns to help conserve water.
The plan for urban wind turbines puts Palmdale in company with blustery cities such as Buffalo, N.Y., and Cleveland that have allowed small wind farms in commercial and business districts.
Palmdale's plan clears the way for turbines no more than 60 feet high to be erected atop light standards in some parking lots.
City officials are also studying turbines that could be compatible in neighborhoods.
A Massachusetts-based firm is preparing to install what will probably be Palmdale's first wind farm -- a 17-turbine plot being developed in conjunction with Sam's Club, a members-only retail warehouse owned by Wal-Mart.
"It's nice to have the advantage that we have, a supply of renewable energy," said Benjamin Lucha, a city administrative analyst. "We have an abundance of sunlight. We have a potential for wind energy . . . and it's consistent."
Palmdale's interest in wind as a power source is part of an emerging trend in the American landscape.
Last year, 10,000 small turbines were sold to homes, farms and businesses nationwide, said Ron Stimmel, who specializes in small wind systems at the American Wind Energy Assn. in Washington, D.C. The figure represents a 78% increase over the previous year, attributed in part to cheaper prices and federal tax credits. The systems are concentrated in states with the best rebate policies -- and a good supply of wind -- including California, Wisconsin, New York, Ohio and Vermont.
"Small wind systems have a similar potential for growth as the solar industry," Stimmel said. "This is very well on its way to becoming mainstream."
Yet Palmdale officials are mindful of aesthetic concerns about wind turbines sprouting up in the city. That's why they would have to be mounted on existing light poles and be compatible in design and color with the existing light fixtures at a given site, said Assistant City Manager Laurie Lile.
For the time being, turbines are not permitted near residential properties, to avoid any disturbance from noise or vibration.
The commercial turbines "are intended not to be stand-alone like a turbine farm," Lile recently told the City Council. "They would be an accessory."
In the past, the community has been apprehensive about large wind turbines. Several years ago, the city fought plans by the Palmdale Water District to build a turbine rising 315 feet above Lake Palmdale to power its treatment plant and booster-pump facility.
Residents complained that the turbine would be a monstrous eyesore and the city filed a lawsuit citing environmental concerns. But the project ultimately moved forward, and today the water district operates the only commercial-scale turbine in the southern Antelope Valley.
The smaller turbines are getting a much warmer reception.
"I think it's an excellent idea," said Marsha Furman, 61, a Palmdale resident of 25 years and member of the Sam's Club where turbines are planned. "The wind is something we live with out here. To have the opportunity to use this technology, oh my gosh. . . . It's outstanding. I'm thrilled."
Furman said she wasn't worried about the aesthetics of the turbines because they were not expected to be "imposing, big and bulky."
Patricia Shaw, 50, the retired owner of a real estate management company, said permitting small wind turbines would help attract new companies to Palmdale.
"Any time you can reduce the cost of small businesses to operate, that just encourages more businesses to come," she said. "The cheaper you make it for a business to operate, the more people they can hire, and the better they can do."
Kory Lundberg, media manager for Wal-Mart, said the Sam's Club turbine project was embraced as part of the company's sustainability initiatives, which include zero waste and the goal to ultimately be supplied entirely by renewable energy.
Wal-mart already has one wind turbine at a store in Arkansas, Lundberg said.
The Sam's Club turbines are expected to generate 76,000 kilowatts of energy, enough "to power six single-family homes for a year," according to Lundberg.
Under a power purchase agreement, the wind development firm Deerpath Energy would own the turbines and Wal-Mart would buy the power they produce, Lundberg said.
Kellogg Warner, founder and chief executive of Deerpath Energy, said Sam's Club can expect to save 5% on energy bills, "depending on how the wind is blowing."
The Sam's Club project would be the Marblehead, Mass.-based firm's first full-scale deployment of wind turbines, according to Warner. The company has other projects in the works in Massachusetts and Texas, but considered Palmdale an ideal location to launch the venture.
"We're providing them with the ability to generate renewable power directly on site, at a cost that is competitive with the local utility cost," Warner said.According to information published by the California Energy Commission, "wind power is currently more expensive than that produced by natural gas-fired plants," but it is reliable because "the price of wind power is not affected by fuel price increases or supply disruptions." Additionally, wind power emits no pollution and turbines can be quickly installed.
"We have to all embrace new ideas," said Lile. "The downside to turbines is basically aesthetic, but we can no longer choose to be so picky aesthetically at the expense of sustainable energy."
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Weekly Drought Monitor - as of October 20th, 2009
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Warming climate could promote forest growth
FROM: Los Angeles Times
A warming planet is expected to bring a host of ills, including rising seas, spreading deserts and disease infestations. Yet it's not all bad news, apparently. Researchers at Oregon State University looked at a variety of climate models and found that higher-elevation forests in the Pacific Northwest can be expected to vigorously expand their growth with warmer temperatures -- up to 500% a year, under some scenarios.
That means more carbon sequestration. But there's a downside too: lower-level forests, where the majority of timber is harvested, could see declines as warmer temperatures dry up moisture. Their report was published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management. Read more here.
--Kim Murphy
A warming planet is expected to bring a host of ills, including rising seas, spreading deserts and disease infestations. Yet it's not all bad news, apparently. Researchers at Oregon State University looked at a variety of climate models and found that higher-elevation forests in the Pacific Northwest can be expected to vigorously expand their growth with warmer temperatures -- up to 500% a year, under some scenarios.
That means more carbon sequestration. But there's a downside too: lower-level forests, where the majority of timber is harvested, could see declines as warmer temperatures dry up moisture. Their report was published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management. Read more here.
--Kim Murphy
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Forest study sees upside of climate change
FROM: Los Angeles Times
Warmer temperatures may spur tree growth in some regions of the Pacific Northwest, which could mean reduced carbon in the air, researchers say.
By Kim Murphy
October 20, 2009
Reporting from Seattle - While gradually warming global temperatures long have been seen as an environmental threat, a study released Monday suggested that the forests of the Pacific Northwest could see a substantial gain in productivity as the thermometer climbs.
The bulk of the gains from climate change will be seen at higher elevations -- above 3,000 feet -- and in forests east of the Cascade Mountains, according to researchers at Oregon State University. Lower-elevation forests, where most of the commercial timber is harvested, could see reduced growth as a result of drier conditions.
The study, published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, is one of the first to look at a variety of climate change models and predict what might happen to the signature forests that are an economic and ecological mainstay of the West as the climate warms.
Already, researchers have found detrimental effects from pest and disease infestation as a result of warmer temperatures that have begun killing off trees such as aspens, white bark pines and Douglas fir.
But a warmer climate also could have a positive effect if, for example, more tree growth reduced the amount of carbon in the air, said Greg Latta, the lead researcher on the study.
"Certainly, if you're putting more cubic meters of wood on an acre each year, that's more carbon out of the atmosphere. That's a good thing," he said.
On the other hand, he said, the addition of more biomass in the forests could mean more fuel for fires.
Researchers didn't take into account the potential effects of fire or pests, which do not tend to die off as readily with warmer temperatures, he said.
The study -- conducted along with the U.S. Forest Service -- found that potential effects would be greatest in Washington, where high-elevation forests could see growth increase from 35% a year to as much as 500%, depending on the climate scenario.
Oregon's high-level forests might see gains of 9% to 75%.
Even with expected declines of 1% to 3% a year in forest productivity at lower elevations, overall productivity could increase about 7% a year in forests west of the Cascades and 20% to the east, the study found.
"There's a lot of variability here, depending on which climate scenario turns out to be most accurate and what policy changes are made as a result," Darius Adams, professor of forest economics at Oregon State, said in a statement.
"Clearly the forest growth is likely to increase the most at higher elevations, but it's worth noting that those forests never had very high growth rates to start with."
Warmer temperatures may spur tree growth in some regions of the Pacific Northwest, which could mean reduced carbon in the air, researchers say.
By Kim Murphy
October 20, 2009
Reporting from Seattle - While gradually warming global temperatures long have been seen as an environmental threat, a study released Monday suggested that the forests of the Pacific Northwest could see a substantial gain in productivity as the thermometer climbs.
The bulk of the gains from climate change will be seen at higher elevations -- above 3,000 feet -- and in forests east of the Cascade Mountains, according to researchers at Oregon State University. Lower-elevation forests, where most of the commercial timber is harvested, could see reduced growth as a result of drier conditions.
The study, published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management, is one of the first to look at a variety of climate change models and predict what might happen to the signature forests that are an economic and ecological mainstay of the West as the climate warms.
Already, researchers have found detrimental effects from pest and disease infestation as a result of warmer temperatures that have begun killing off trees such as aspens, white bark pines and Douglas fir.
But a warmer climate also could have a positive effect if, for example, more tree growth reduced the amount of carbon in the air, said Greg Latta, the lead researcher on the study.
"Certainly, if you're putting more cubic meters of wood on an acre each year, that's more carbon out of the atmosphere. That's a good thing," he said.
On the other hand, he said, the addition of more biomass in the forests could mean more fuel for fires.
Researchers didn't take into account the potential effects of fire or pests, which do not tend to die off as readily with warmer temperatures, he said.
The study -- conducted along with the U.S. Forest Service -- found that potential effects would be greatest in Washington, where high-elevation forests could see growth increase from 35% a year to as much as 500%, depending on the climate scenario.
Oregon's high-level forests might see gains of 9% to 75%.
Even with expected declines of 1% to 3% a year in forest productivity at lower elevations, overall productivity could increase about 7% a year in forests west of the Cascades and 20% to the east, the study found.
"There's a lot of variability here, depending on which climate scenario turns out to be most accurate and what policy changes are made as a result," Darius Adams, professor of forest economics at Oregon State, said in a statement.
"Clearly the forest growth is likely to increase the most at higher elevations, but it's worth noting that those forests never had very high growth rates to start with."
Monday, October 19, 2009
Renewable energy projects threaten some of California’s rarest plants
FROM: Los Angeles Times
The proposed construction of massive wind and solar energy projects on public land in the California desert would hasten destruction and further fragment land that is home to 17% of state’s rarest plants, botanists said Saturday.
“Most of the solar and wind projects currently under review are in the wrong places,” said Greg Suba, conservation program director for the California Native Plant Society. He and other experts spoke at Cal State Fullerton for the Southern California Botanists’ 35th annual symposium.
“We believe that full surveys of all plants — not just of targeted species — should be required for all these project sites,” Suba said. “Plant species represent the underlying fabric of an ecosystem.”
The U.S. Bureau of Land Management and California Energy Commission are reviewing 130 applications to build wind and solar projects on more than a million acres of public land.
Companies hope to begin construction on about a dozen of those projects by late next year.
The development of solar power facilities in the desert has been a top priority of the Obama administration as it seeks to ease the nation’s dependency on fossil fuels and address climate change.
But Suba and James Andre, director of the Sweeney Granite Mountains Desert Research Center in the east Mojave community of Kelso, urged that the projects currently under review by state and federal regulatory agencies be built on more than 200,000 acres of land already identified as ecologically disturbed.
“It’s the end of much of the California desert,” said Andre. “Millions of acres could eventually be bulldozed and fenced off. It’s your land, but you won’t be able to go there.”
--Louis Sahagun reporting from Fullerton
The proposed construction of massive wind and solar energy projects on public land in the California desert would hasten destruction and further fragment land that is home to 17% of state’s rarest plants, botanists said Saturday.
“Most of the solar and wind projects currently under review are in the wrong places,” said Greg Suba, conservation program director for the California Native Plant Society. He and other experts spoke at Cal State Fullerton for the Southern California Botanists’ 35th annual symposium.
“We believe that full surveys of all plants — not just of targeted species — should be required for all these project sites,” Suba said. “Plant species represent the underlying fabric of an ecosystem.”
The U.S. Bureau of Land Management and California Energy Commission are reviewing 130 applications to build wind and solar projects on more than a million acres of public land.
Companies hope to begin construction on about a dozen of those projects by late next year.
The development of solar power facilities in the desert has been a top priority of the Obama administration as it seeks to ease the nation’s dependency on fossil fuels and address climate change.
But Suba and James Andre, director of the Sweeney Granite Mountains Desert Research Center in the east Mojave community of Kelso, urged that the projects currently under review by state and federal regulatory agencies be built on more than 200,000 acres of land already identified as ecologically disturbed.
“It’s the end of much of the California desert,” said Andre. “Millions of acres could eventually be bulldozed and fenced off. It’s your land, but you won’t be able to go there.”
--Louis Sahagun reporting from Fullerton
Sunday, October 18, 2009
NOAA: Global Surface Temperature Was Second Warmest for September
FROM: NOAA
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September.
Global Temperature Highlights
**The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.12 degrees F above the 20th century average of 59.0 degrees F. Separately the global land surface temperature was 1.75 degrees F above the 20th century average of 53.6 degrees F.
**Warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed most of the world’s land areas during the month. The greatest warmth occurred across Canada and the northern and western contiguous United States. Warmer-than-normal conditions also prevailed across Europe, most of Asia and Australia.
**The worldwide ocean temperature tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest September on record, 0.90 degree F above the 20th century average of 61.1 degrees F. The near-Antarctic southern ocean and the Gulf of Alaska featured notable cooler-than-average temperatures.
Other Highlights
**Arctic sea ice covered an average 2.1 million square miles in September - the third lowest for any September since records began in 1979. The coverage was 23.8 percent below the 1979-2000 average, and the 13th consecutive September with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
**Antarctic sea ice extent in September was 2.2 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This was the third largest September extent on record, behind 2006 and 2007.
**Typhoon Ketsana became 2009’s second-deadliest tropical cyclone so far, claiming nearly 500 lives across the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The storm struck the Philippines on September 26, leaving 80 percent of Manila submerged.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Based on records going back to 1880, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
NCDC scientists also reported that the average land surface temperature for September was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. Additionally, the global ocean surface temperature was tied for the fifth warmest on record for September.
Global Temperature Highlights
**The combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.12 degrees F above the 20th century average of 59.0 degrees F. Separately the global land surface temperature was 1.75 degrees F above the 20th century average of 53.6 degrees F.
**Warmer-than-average temperatures engulfed most of the world’s land areas during the month. The greatest warmth occurred across Canada and the northern and western contiguous United States. Warmer-than-normal conditions also prevailed across Europe, most of Asia and Australia.
**The worldwide ocean temperature tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest September on record, 0.90 degree F above the 20th century average of 61.1 degrees F. The near-Antarctic southern ocean and the Gulf of Alaska featured notable cooler-than-average temperatures.
Other Highlights
**Arctic sea ice covered an average 2.1 million square miles in September - the third lowest for any September since records began in 1979. The coverage was 23.8 percent below the 1979-2000 average, and the 13th consecutive September with below-average Arctic sea ice extent.
**Antarctic sea ice extent in September was 2.2 percent above the 1979-2000 average. This was the third largest September extent on record, behind 2006 and 2007.
**Typhoon Ketsana became 2009’s second-deadliest tropical cyclone so far, claiming nearly 500 lives across the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. The storm struck the Philippines on September 26, leaving 80 percent of Manila submerged.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Winter forecast: Warm northern tier; wet, cool South, Southeast
FROM: USA Today
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
El Nino should bring a warmer-than-average winter to most of the north-central and northwestern areas of the USA, the federal Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., announced Thursday. Specifically, unusually warm areas should include the upper Midwest, the central and northern Plains, the northern Rockies, and the Northwest.
The primary reason for the predicted warmer-than-average northern winter is El Nino, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the world. Its effects are most pronounced in the USA in the winter, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the climate center.
"We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period," he said.
However, the forecast for the heavily populated and energy-hungry Northeast is uncertain. The climate center reports that winter weather there is driven primarily not by El Nino, but by climate patterns over the north Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, which are difficult to predict more than a week or so in advance.
As for precipitation, climate forecasters predict the southern tier of the USA – all the way from southern California, through Texas and into Florida – will have a wetter-than-average winter, as is typical with El Nino. This could be good news for drought-plagued parts of California and Texas.
"However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter," the center reported.
Drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
Halpert cautions, however, that this forecast is for the seasonal average, and doesn't predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations.
And as for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver in February, the predicted warm, dry winter for the Pacific Northwest could pose problems for outdoor events. Since Vancouver is just 30 miles from the U.S. border, U.S. climate forecasts for the Northwest are valid there. "We expect Vancouver to have a warm, dry winter," said Halpert. But he added it should still be cold enough there for snow.
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
El Nino should bring a warmer-than-average winter to most of the north-central and northwestern areas of the USA, the federal Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., announced Thursday. Specifically, unusually warm areas should include the upper Midwest, the central and northern Plains, the northern Rockies, and the Northwest.
The primary reason for the predicted warmer-than-average northern winter is El Nino, a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns around the world. Its effects are most pronounced in the USA in the winter, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the climate center.
"We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period," he said.
However, the forecast for the heavily populated and energy-hungry Northeast is uncertain. The climate center reports that winter weather there is driven primarily not by El Nino, but by climate patterns over the north Atlantic Ocean and Arctic, which are difficult to predict more than a week or so in advance.
As for precipitation, climate forecasters predict the southern tier of the USA – all the way from southern California, through Texas and into Florida – will have a wetter-than-average winter, as is typical with El Nino. This could be good news for drought-plagued parts of California and Texas.
"However, tornado records suggest that there will also be an increased chance of organized tornado activity for the Gulf Coast region this winter," the center reported.
Drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
Halpert cautions, however, that this forecast is for the seasonal average, and doesn't predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations.
And as for the Winter Olympics in Vancouver in February, the predicted warm, dry winter for the Pacific Northwest could pose problems for outdoor events. Since Vancouver is just 30 miles from the U.S. border, U.S. climate forecasts for the Northwest are valid there. "We expect Vancouver to have a warm, dry winter," said Halpert. But he added it should still be cold enough there for snow.
Friday, October 16, 2009
California passes bill to encourage stormwater reuse
FROM: Los Angeles Times
During the wet season, the city of L.A. sends 100 million gallons of stormwater into the Pacific each day. That water had, for many years, been handled as pollution, since the water produced in rainstorms picks up various effluents that then flush into the ocean.
But a new California bill seeks to expand the role of stormwater management to incorporate strategies that will use it as a resource. The Stormwater Resource Planning Act, SB 790, allows municipalities to tap funds from two of the state’s existing bond funds and use the money for projects that reduce or reuse stormwater, recharge the groundwater supply, create green spaces and enhance wildlife habitats. SB 790 was signed into law Sunday and takes effect Jan. 1, 2010.
"I was proud to carry 790," said Sen. Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills), who wrote the bill. "It uses existing funds to create new water supplies out of water that in the past was simply treated and dumped. This bill helps create a significant new source of water for our always water-short state."
With California in the throes of a budget crisis and a water crisis – the state is currently enduring a third year of drought – the competition will likely be fierce among the many government agencies that manage the state’s stormwater. SB 790 allows agencies to apply for and, if approved, draw on remaining funds from Prop. 50, the $3.44-billion water security bond passed by California voters in 2002, and Prop. 84, the $5.4-billion safe drinking water bond passed in 2006. Exactly how much money is left over from those bonds is unclear.
L.A.’s Bureau of Sanitation, which has already received $22 million in bond funds from the state for various stormwater projects, is likely to apply for even more funds through SB 790. According to Wing Tam, assistant division manager for the bureau’s watershed protection division, the money will fund an expansion of the city's rainwater harvesting projects and green infrastructure, including large cisterns, stream restoration, biofiltration and downspout disconnections.
"It's important for us to capture stormwater and use it as a resource," said Tam, who noted that the city's paradigm shift from viewing stormwater as pollution to stormwater as a resource has been a gradual process born through 10 years of pilot projects. "Not only does that help us with water quality but quality of life. A wetland park deals with water quality, but it also creates a park for people to use. It's multi-use. That's our future."
-- Susan Carpenter
During the wet season, the city of L.A. sends 100 million gallons of stormwater into the Pacific each day. That water had, for many years, been handled as pollution, since the water produced in rainstorms picks up various effluents that then flush into the ocean.
But a new California bill seeks to expand the role of stormwater management to incorporate strategies that will use it as a resource. The Stormwater Resource Planning Act, SB 790, allows municipalities to tap funds from two of the state’s existing bond funds and use the money for projects that reduce or reuse stormwater, recharge the groundwater supply, create green spaces and enhance wildlife habitats. SB 790 was signed into law Sunday and takes effect Jan. 1, 2010.
"I was proud to carry 790," said Sen. Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills), who wrote the bill. "It uses existing funds to create new water supplies out of water that in the past was simply treated and dumped. This bill helps create a significant new source of water for our always water-short state."
With California in the throes of a budget crisis and a water crisis – the state is currently enduring a third year of drought – the competition will likely be fierce among the many government agencies that manage the state’s stormwater. SB 790 allows agencies to apply for and, if approved, draw on remaining funds from Prop. 50, the $3.44-billion water security bond passed by California voters in 2002, and Prop. 84, the $5.4-billion safe drinking water bond passed in 2006. Exactly how much money is left over from those bonds is unclear.
L.A.’s Bureau of Sanitation, which has already received $22 million in bond funds from the state for various stormwater projects, is likely to apply for even more funds through SB 790. According to Wing Tam, assistant division manager for the bureau’s watershed protection division, the money will fund an expansion of the city's rainwater harvesting projects and green infrastructure, including large cisterns, stream restoration, biofiltration and downspout disconnections.
"It's important for us to capture stormwater and use it as a resource," said Tam, who noted that the city's paradigm shift from viewing stormwater as pollution to stormwater as a resource has been a gradual process born through 10 years of pilot projects. "Not only does that help us with water quality but quality of life. A wetland park deals with water quality, but it also creates a park for people to use. It's multi-use. That's our future."
-- Susan Carpenter
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Weekly Drought Monitor - as of October 13th, 2009
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Researchers determining the costs of climate change
FROM: San Diego Union-Tribune
Scripps, insurer team up to assess financial risks
By Dean Calbreath
In an effort to pin down the costs of global climate change, one of the world's largest insurers announced yesterday that its research network is joining with San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography to study the effect of changes in the weather and sea level.
Under the arrangement, Scripps will provide climate research to the Willis Group of London and its clients in the insurance industry, which could use the data to assess their exposure to financial risks from rising sea levels or weather-related catastrophes.
Stephen Bennett, director of business development at Scripps, said in a statement that the partnership showed that “insurers and reinsurers are leading the commercial sector when it comes to considering the impact of climate change on a global scale.”
No monetary details of the arrangement were disclosed, but Tony Haymet, Scripps' director, said that partnership with corporate clients such as Willis help make up for reductions in funding from Sacramento. Scripps is an arm of the University of California San Diego, which has been hit hard by state funding cutbacks.
The deal between Willis and Scripps comes as insurers scramble to comply with a rule from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, requiring them to report to investors and regulators how much they may be financially affected by climate change.
Even before the association imposed its rule this year, insurers have been increasingly preoccupied with the question of whether disasters such as Hurricane Katrina or the recent typhoons in Asia are unrelated one-time events or harbingers of global trends that could result in massive losses.
“This is a huge issue for us,” said Peter Moraga, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Network for California. “Scientists have linked climate change to hurricanes and tornadoes in the U.S., tsunamis and typhoons in the Pacific and even the spread of wildfires in California and the Western states. Since risk is the driving factor for how we price polices, measuring those risks is crucial.”
A policy statement the network released last month listed the growing expenses related to hurricanes as one reason insurers are so concerned by climate change. The report noted that seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in history occurred between 2004 and 2005, topped by Katrina, which cost more than $41 billion.
“It is not inconceivable that in any given year, there could be more than one megadisaster,” the network said.
Within the next 30 years, it is very likely that the United States could experience a “peak year” of natural disasters causing $1 trillion in damage, according to the Geneva Association of Risk and Insurance Economists.
“In fact, so much development is taking place in the coastal zones (which are especially prone to storms), the figure may arrive considerably before 2040,” the report said.
The institute said there is not enough data to determine how, when or where such disasters might occur.
“To address the certainty of higher disaster costs, insurers will need to overhaul their procedures for risk assessment, claims-handling and reinsurance,” the report said.
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has been prodding insurers for more information on how they are affected by climate change.
Starting in May, state regulators will require insurers to fill out a questionnaire identifying the current and anticipated risks that climate change poses to their companies, evaluating how climate change could impact their investment portfolios and describing their processes for identifying climate risk.
Although the association finalized the survey, the California Insurance Department has not yet figured how to implement it or how it is going to use the information once it is collected.
“We are looking at the mechanisms we can use to get this information,” said Darrel Ng, spokesman for state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
The Willis-Scripps partnership is designed to help insurers determine how much risk they face.
Kyle Beatty, business leader of U.S. catastrophe management services at Willis' reinsurance arm, called it “a unique opportunity (for insurers) to discuss the realities of climate science in the context of their business objectives.”
Bennett, who arranged the deal with Willis, is a meteorologist who previously worked with Citadel Investment Group in Chicago to determine how weather patterns affect energy usage.
Citadel is a hedge fund manager with a large energy portfolio.
One of Bennett's first projects after being hired at Scripps last year was to coordinate a partnership among Scripps, Citadel, Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas company, and Susquehanna International Group, an investment firm, to study ways of predicting spikes in extreme cold weather in the Northeast and Midwest.
Other recent projects at Scripps include studying how ocean currents can be used to forecast rises in temperature in California, which could help utilities plan for peak rates of electricity usage. Together with UCSD's Rady School of Management, the institution also holds seminars with business executives to discuss how they can adapt to climate change.
Union-Tribune
Scripps, insurer team up to assess financial risks
By Dean Calbreath
In an effort to pin down the costs of global climate change, one of the world's largest insurers announced yesterday that its research network is joining with San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography to study the effect of changes in the weather and sea level.
Under the arrangement, Scripps will provide climate research to the Willis Group of London and its clients in the insurance industry, which could use the data to assess their exposure to financial risks from rising sea levels or weather-related catastrophes.
Stephen Bennett, director of business development at Scripps, said in a statement that the partnership showed that “insurers and reinsurers are leading the commercial sector when it comes to considering the impact of climate change on a global scale.”
No monetary details of the arrangement were disclosed, but Tony Haymet, Scripps' director, said that partnership with corporate clients such as Willis help make up for reductions in funding from Sacramento. Scripps is an arm of the University of California San Diego, which has been hit hard by state funding cutbacks.
The deal between Willis and Scripps comes as insurers scramble to comply with a rule from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, requiring them to report to investors and regulators how much they may be financially affected by climate change.
Even before the association imposed its rule this year, insurers have been increasingly preoccupied with the question of whether disasters such as Hurricane Katrina or the recent typhoons in Asia are unrelated one-time events or harbingers of global trends that could result in massive losses.
“This is a huge issue for us,” said Peter Moraga, a spokesman for the Insurance Information Network for California. “Scientists have linked climate change to hurricanes and tornadoes in the U.S., tsunamis and typhoons in the Pacific and even the spread of wildfires in California and the Western states. Since risk is the driving factor for how we price polices, measuring those risks is crucial.”
A policy statement the network released last month listed the growing expenses related to hurricanes as one reason insurers are so concerned by climate change. The report noted that seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in history occurred between 2004 and 2005, topped by Katrina, which cost more than $41 billion.
“It is not inconceivable that in any given year, there could be more than one megadisaster,” the network said.
Within the next 30 years, it is very likely that the United States could experience a “peak year” of natural disasters causing $1 trillion in damage, according to the Geneva Association of Risk and Insurance Economists.
“In fact, so much development is taking place in the coastal zones (which are especially prone to storms), the figure may arrive considerably before 2040,” the report said.
The institute said there is not enough data to determine how, when or where such disasters might occur.
“To address the certainty of higher disaster costs, insurers will need to overhaul their procedures for risk assessment, claims-handling and reinsurance,” the report said.
The National Association of Insurance Commissioners has been prodding insurers for more information on how they are affected by climate change.
Starting in May, state regulators will require insurers to fill out a questionnaire identifying the current and anticipated risks that climate change poses to their companies, evaluating how climate change could impact their investment portfolios and describing their processes for identifying climate risk.
Although the association finalized the survey, the California Insurance Department has not yet figured how to implement it or how it is going to use the information once it is collected.
“We are looking at the mechanisms we can use to get this information,” said Darrel Ng, spokesman for state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
The Willis-Scripps partnership is designed to help insurers determine how much risk they face.
Kyle Beatty, business leader of U.S. catastrophe management services at Willis' reinsurance arm, called it “a unique opportunity (for insurers) to discuss the realities of climate science in the context of their business objectives.”
Bennett, who arranged the deal with Willis, is a meteorologist who previously worked with Citadel Investment Group in Chicago to determine how weather patterns affect energy usage.
Citadel is a hedge fund manager with a large energy portfolio.
One of Bennett's first projects after being hired at Scripps last year was to coordinate a partnership among Scripps, Citadel, Chesapeake Energy, a natural gas company, and Susquehanna International Group, an investment firm, to study ways of predicting spikes in extreme cold weather in the Northeast and Midwest.
Other recent projects at Scripps include studying how ocean currents can be used to forecast rises in temperature in California, which could help utilities plan for peak rates of electricity usage. Together with UCSD's Rady School of Management, the institution also holds seminars with business executives to discuss how they can adapt to climate change.
Union-Tribune
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Take a deep breath -- more bad news on air pollution
FROM: Los Angeles Times
The consequences of breathing bad air is linked to appendicitis and ear infections, new studies indicate.
By Jill U. Adams
It's easy to see how air pollution would affect respiratory disease: You breathe in smog-filled miasma all day and the ozone, other noxious gases and small particulate matter therein can make you wheeze and cough. Pollutants can trigger asthma attacks and bronchitis in susceptible individuals.
But it's harder at first blush to understand links to other conditions. In two studies reported last week, bad air was associated with higher rates of appendicitis and ear infections.
The new reports have been met with surprise because neither health problem seems obviously linked with the airway or bloodstream. At the same time, they represent a trend toward broadening the research scope of air pollution and health.
"People are looking at everything and air pollution these days," says Francine Laden, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.
Research on air pollution has been conducted worldwide for decades and is part of the basis for government regulation of air quality. Study after study has found more hospitalizations and higher death rates when certain pollutants are high. In addition to respiratory effects, research has established that air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular events such as arrhythmia, heart attack and stroke, and the incidence of certain cancers.
In the appendicitis study, published Oct. 5 in the Canadian Medical Assn. Journal, researchers examined records for 5,191 adults admitted to Calgary hospitals for appendicitis from 1999 to 2006. The dates of the patients' admissions were compared to air pollution levels in the preceding week, using data from three air quality surveillance sites in the city.
The scientists found a significant effect of pollutants on appendicitis rates in the summer months among men, but not women.
The risk of going to the hospital with appendicitis more than doubled when summer pollution was at its highest, says study lead author Dr. Gilaad Kaplan, a physician-researcher at the University of Calgary.
The strongest effects were found when high pollution days preceded hospital admission by at least five days rather than a shorter period. This suggests there is a certain lag time between pollutant exposure and the development of appendicitis.
The study did not examine how pollution might cause appendicitis, but Kaplan speculates that inflammatory processes are involved. Substances the body produces to ramp up inflammation are implicated in appendicitis. Other research has found these substances in healthy volunteers after they breathed diesel exhaust.
A similar argument is used to explain cardiovascular risk factors associated with air pollution: that substances involved in blood clotting are produced after exposure to bad air.
In the ear infection study, presented at the annual meeting of the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery in San Diego, researchers compared prevalence of the disease in 126,060 children with trends in air pollution from 1997 to 2006. Health information came from the National Health Interview Survey, administered by the U.S. Census Bureau, and air quality data came from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency records.
Four pollutants -- carbon monoxide, nitrous dioxide, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter -- decreased nationwide over the 10-year period. The number of children reported as having more than three ear infections in a year also declined.
Again, the study cannot say air pollution causes ear infections, only that the two are associated. And it did not investigate how pollutants affect the ear canal.
But it's not a stretch to go from respiratory illness to ear infection, says lead author Dr. Nina Shapiro, a pediatric otolaryngologist at UCLA School of Medicine. Pollutants have been shown to damage cilia -- tiny little hairs that line many of the body's passageways.
If that occurs in the ear, Shapiro says, then the cleansing process is damaged or slowed, which could set the stage for infection.
Study coauthor Dr. Neil Bhattacharyya found a similar association between air pollution and sinus infection in adults in an earlier investigation published in Laryngoscope in March.
An inherent weakness in both the ear infection and appendicitis studies -- and in many air pollution studies, for that matter -- is that air quality data for a geographical area are used as an estimate of what an individual actually inhales, says Derek Shendell, a public health researcher at the University of Medicine and Dentistry, New Jersey, in Piscataway.
Air quality measured at a site may not represent what someone living in that neighborhood is actually breathing. It will depend on levels they encounter in their house or workplace.
And even within a given neighborhood, pollution will be greater near busier roads.
Researchers must also be on the lookout for other unrelated factors that may affect the health condition being measured.
For example, Shapiro notes, there was a decline in cigarette smoking during the time period covered by her ear-infection study.
If the children also had less exposure to secondhand smoke -- a known risk factor for ear infections -- that could account for some of the decline in disease.
Pneumococcal vaccine, introduced in 2000 -- the middle of Shapiro's study period -- has also been credited with declining rates of ear infections.
In fact, both the new studies are just first steps. They are sure to stimulate more research on how air pollution might trigger these conditions as well as other nonrespiratory diseases.
The consequences of breathing bad air is linked to appendicitis and ear infections, new studies indicate.
By Jill U. Adams
It's easy to see how air pollution would affect respiratory disease: You breathe in smog-filled miasma all day and the ozone, other noxious gases and small particulate matter therein can make you wheeze and cough. Pollutants can trigger asthma attacks and bronchitis in susceptible individuals.
But it's harder at first blush to understand links to other conditions. In two studies reported last week, bad air was associated with higher rates of appendicitis and ear infections.
The new reports have been met with surprise because neither health problem seems obviously linked with the airway or bloodstream. At the same time, they represent a trend toward broadening the research scope of air pollution and health.
"People are looking at everything and air pollution these days," says Francine Laden, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health in Boston.
Research on air pollution has been conducted worldwide for decades and is part of the basis for government regulation of air quality. Study after study has found more hospitalizations and higher death rates when certain pollutants are high. In addition to respiratory effects, research has established that air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular events such as arrhythmia, heart attack and stroke, and the incidence of certain cancers.
In the appendicitis study, published Oct. 5 in the Canadian Medical Assn. Journal, researchers examined records for 5,191 adults admitted to Calgary hospitals for appendicitis from 1999 to 2006. The dates of the patients' admissions were compared to air pollution levels in the preceding week, using data from three air quality surveillance sites in the city.
The scientists found a significant effect of pollutants on appendicitis rates in the summer months among men, but not women.
The risk of going to the hospital with appendicitis more than doubled when summer pollution was at its highest, says study lead author Dr. Gilaad Kaplan, a physician-researcher at the University of Calgary.
The strongest effects were found when high pollution days preceded hospital admission by at least five days rather than a shorter period. This suggests there is a certain lag time between pollutant exposure and the development of appendicitis.
The study did not examine how pollution might cause appendicitis, but Kaplan speculates that inflammatory processes are involved. Substances the body produces to ramp up inflammation are implicated in appendicitis. Other research has found these substances in healthy volunteers after they breathed diesel exhaust.
A similar argument is used to explain cardiovascular risk factors associated with air pollution: that substances involved in blood clotting are produced after exposure to bad air.
In the ear infection study, presented at the annual meeting of the American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery in San Diego, researchers compared prevalence of the disease in 126,060 children with trends in air pollution from 1997 to 2006. Health information came from the National Health Interview Survey, administered by the U.S. Census Bureau, and air quality data came from U.S. Environmental Protection Agency records.
Four pollutants -- carbon monoxide, nitrous dioxide, sulfur dioxide and particulate matter -- decreased nationwide over the 10-year period. The number of children reported as having more than three ear infections in a year also declined.
Again, the study cannot say air pollution causes ear infections, only that the two are associated. And it did not investigate how pollutants affect the ear canal.
But it's not a stretch to go from respiratory illness to ear infection, says lead author Dr. Nina Shapiro, a pediatric otolaryngologist at UCLA School of Medicine. Pollutants have been shown to damage cilia -- tiny little hairs that line many of the body's passageways.
If that occurs in the ear, Shapiro says, then the cleansing process is damaged or slowed, which could set the stage for infection.
Study coauthor Dr. Neil Bhattacharyya found a similar association between air pollution and sinus infection in adults in an earlier investigation published in Laryngoscope in March.
An inherent weakness in both the ear infection and appendicitis studies -- and in many air pollution studies, for that matter -- is that air quality data for a geographical area are used as an estimate of what an individual actually inhales, says Derek Shendell, a public health researcher at the University of Medicine and Dentistry, New Jersey, in Piscataway.
Air quality measured at a site may not represent what someone living in that neighborhood is actually breathing. It will depend on levels they encounter in their house or workplace.
And even within a given neighborhood, pollution will be greater near busier roads.
Researchers must also be on the lookout for other unrelated factors that may affect the health condition being measured.
For example, Shapiro notes, there was a decline in cigarette smoking during the time period covered by her ear-infection study.
If the children also had less exposure to secondhand smoke -- a known risk factor for ear infections -- that could account for some of the decline in disease.
Pneumococcal vaccine, introduced in 2000 -- the middle of Shapiro's study period -- has also been credited with declining rates of ear infections.
In fact, both the new studies are just first steps. They are sure to stimulate more research on how air pollution might trigger these conditions as well as other nonrespiratory diseases.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Quake was a test for warning system
FROM: San Diego Union-Tribune
Tsunami a chance to check readiness
By Robert Krier
The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center conducted a test of its system on Sept. 16.
Less than two weeks later, it revved up the system for real when an earthquake off Samoa generated a tsunami that killed more than 180 people.
The Sept. 29 wave turned out to be harmless in San Diego — about 3 inches — but it did give emergency officials a chance to practice procedures that could be important should a bigger, more immediate threat occur.
“We were very glad to have a six-hour warning,” said Ron Lane, director of the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services. “Our big concern is with an earthquake that is much closer.”
A nearby temblor could give emergency officials less than an hour to make decisions and take action.
Shortly after the 8.0 magnitude quake struck off Samoa, the warning center — located in Palmer, Alaska — held a conference call with National Weather Service offices along the West Coast. The center told the offices' warning coordinators of the estimated wave heights and the expected arrival times.
Then, it issued a tsunami advisory.
Advisories are posted when the potential threat is not great and no major inundation is expected, but when strong currents could still pose problems for boaters or people in the water.
The warning center also notified the California Office of Emergency Services, which in turn contacted county emergency officials. Those individuals spread the word to local beach communities.
Lifeguards for the city of San Diego decided to warn people to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline. They didn't evacuate the beaches, in contrast to communities in Orange and Los Angeles counties, where the waves were expected to be twice as high.
The National Weather Service changed its procedures slightly after the Sept. 29 event.
The warning center's tsunami advisory appeared to be canceled after a few hours even though it was still in effect, and that was because a technical glitch made it disappear temporarily from some of the weather service's online maps. The computer bug has been fixed, said Ed Clark, the local warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service.
Union-Tribune
Tsunami a chance to check readiness
By Robert Krier
The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center conducted a test of its system on Sept. 16.
Less than two weeks later, it revved up the system for real when an earthquake off Samoa generated a tsunami that killed more than 180 people.
The Sept. 29 wave turned out to be harmless in San Diego — about 3 inches — but it did give emergency officials a chance to practice procedures that could be important should a bigger, more immediate threat occur.
“We were very glad to have a six-hour warning,” said Ron Lane, director of the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services. “Our big concern is with an earthquake that is much closer.”
A nearby temblor could give emergency officials less than an hour to make decisions and take action.
Shortly after the 8.0 magnitude quake struck off Samoa, the warning center — located in Palmer, Alaska — held a conference call with National Weather Service offices along the West Coast. The center told the offices' warning coordinators of the estimated wave heights and the expected arrival times.
Then, it issued a tsunami advisory.
Advisories are posted when the potential threat is not great and no major inundation is expected, but when strong currents could still pose problems for boaters or people in the water.
The warning center also notified the California Office of Emergency Services, which in turn contacted county emergency officials. Those individuals spread the word to local beach communities.
Lifeguards for the city of San Diego decided to warn people to stay out of the water and away from the shoreline. They didn't evacuate the beaches, in contrast to communities in Orange and Los Angeles counties, where the waves were expected to be twice as high.
The National Weather Service changed its procedures slightly after the Sept. 29 event.
The warning center's tsunami advisory appeared to be canceled after a few hours even though it was still in effect, and that was because a technical glitch made it disappear temporarily from some of the weather service's online maps. The computer bug has been fixed, said Ed Clark, the local warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service.
Union-Tribune
Sunday, October 11, 2009
September ties a heat record
FROM: Los Angeles Times
The month's average temperature -- 73.3 -- hadn't been seen since 1984 and hasn't been topped in the record books.
By Ann M. Simmons
California this year experienced its warmest temperatures for the month of September in 25 years, as above-average temperatures were registered in the West and across the entire nation for the month, federal weather officials said Friday.
The average California temperature for September was 73.3 degrees, matching the level of warmth experienced in September 1984, said officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The 73.3 reading is the highest average temperature for the month of September in the 115 years that the National Climatic Data Center has been keeping records, officials said.
Jim Ashby, a climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, said it was difficult to identify any particular pattern associated with California's warm September.
But "October 1984 was extremely cool . . . and that's the way this October has started off, cool," Ashby said.
Nationally, the average September temperature of 66.4 was one degree above the average during the 20th century, according to the agency's data. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in September averaged 2.48 inches, exactly the average between the years 1901 and 2000.
Regionally, the West experienced its warmest September on record. Nevada, for example, registered an average of 66 degrees.
The month's average temperature -- 73.3 -- hadn't been seen since 1984 and hasn't been topped in the record books.
By Ann M. Simmons
California this year experienced its warmest temperatures for the month of September in 25 years, as above-average temperatures were registered in the West and across the entire nation for the month, federal weather officials said Friday.
The average California temperature for September was 73.3 degrees, matching the level of warmth experienced in September 1984, said officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The 73.3 reading is the highest average temperature for the month of September in the 115 years that the National Climatic Data Center has been keeping records, officials said.
Jim Ashby, a climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center in Reno, said it was difficult to identify any particular pattern associated with California's warm September.
But "October 1984 was extremely cool . . . and that's the way this October has started off, cool," Ashby said.
Nationally, the average September temperature of 66.4 was one degree above the average during the 20th century, according to the agency's data. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in September averaged 2.48 inches, exactly the average between the years 1901 and 2000.
Regionally, the West experienced its warmest September on record. Nevada, for example, registered an average of 66 degrees.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
NOAA: September Temperature Above-Average for the U.S.
FROM: NOAA
The September 2009 average temperature for the contiguous United States was above the long-term average, according to NOAA’s monthly State of the Climate report issued today. Based on records going back to 1895, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in September averaged 2.48 inches, exactly the 1901-2000 average.
U.S. Temperature Highlights
- Below-normal temperatures across parts of the south and Northeast were offset by record high values in the West and above normal temperatures in the Northwest and northern tier states resulting in a higher average temperature for the contiguous United States.
- Both California and Nevada experienced their warmest September of the 115-year record. Additionally California, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota posted their third warmest, Idaho its fourth warmest, Utah fifth warmest, Minnesota sixth warmest, and Oregon registered its eighth warmest.
- On a regional level, the West experienced its warmest September on record. The Northwest and West North Central experienced their sixth and eleventh warmest such periods. Below-normal temperatures were recorded in the South and Northeast.
U.S. Precipitation Highlights
- While precipitation equaled the long-term average for the contiguous U.S., regional amounts varied widely. The South experienced its sixth-wettest September, which was countered by the sixth-driest period around the Great Lakes and upper Midwest region.
- Arkansas registered its second wettest September, Tennessee its fifth, with Mississippi and Alabama posting their sixth wettest on record. Despite notable and flood-producing rains in northern Georgia, drier conditions near the coast kept the state’s overall average out of the top ten.
- Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
- By the end of September, moderate-to-exceptional drought covered 15 percent of the contiguous United States, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought intensified in the Upper Midwest and eastern Carolinas, while remaining entrenched in much of the West. Drought conditions remain severe in south Texas, despite some improvement.
Other Highlights
- During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres -- both were below the 2000-2009 average for the month. The acreage burned by wildfires was roughly half of the 2000-2009 average. For the January-September period, 70,217 fires were reported, which is slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned is slightly less than average.
The September 2009 average temperature for the contiguous United States was above the long-term average, according to NOAA’s monthly State of the Climate report issued today. Based on records going back to 1895, the monthly National Climatic Data Center analysis is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides.
The average September temperature of 66.4 degrees F was 1.0 degree F above the 20th Century average. Precipitation across the contiguous United States in September averaged 2.48 inches, exactly the 1901-2000 average.
U.S. Temperature Highlights
- Below-normal temperatures across parts of the south and Northeast were offset by record high values in the West and above normal temperatures in the Northwest and northern tier states resulting in a higher average temperature for the contiguous United States.
- Both California and Nevada experienced their warmest September of the 115-year record. Additionally California, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota posted their third warmest, Idaho its fourth warmest, Utah fifth warmest, Minnesota sixth warmest, and Oregon registered its eighth warmest.
- On a regional level, the West experienced its warmest September on record. The Northwest and West North Central experienced their sixth and eleventh warmest such periods. Below-normal temperatures were recorded in the South and Northeast.
U.S. Precipitation Highlights
- While precipitation equaled the long-term average for the contiguous U.S., regional amounts varied widely. The South experienced its sixth-wettest September, which was countered by the sixth-driest period around the Great Lakes and upper Midwest region.
- Arkansas registered its second wettest September, Tennessee its fifth, with Mississippi and Alabama posting their sixth wettest on record. Despite notable and flood-producing rains in northern Georgia, drier conditions near the coast kept the state’s overall average out of the top ten.
- Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
- By the end of September, moderate-to-exceptional drought covered 15 percent of the contiguous United States, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drought intensified in the Upper Midwest and eastern Carolinas, while remaining entrenched in much of the West. Drought conditions remain severe in south Texas, despite some improvement.
Other Highlights
- During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres -- both were below the 2000-2009 average for the month. The acreage burned by wildfires was roughly half of the 2000-2009 average. For the January-September period, 70,217 fires were reported, which is slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned is slightly less than average.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Weekly Drought Monitor - as of October 6th, 2009
Thursday, October 08, 2009
Debris Flows May Affect Southern California Communities
FROM: USGS
PASADENA, Calif. – Rainstorms this year in the area burned by the Station Fire have the potential to trigger debris flows that may impact neighborhoods at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains as well as areas in Big Tujunga Canyon, Pacoima Canyon, Arroyo Seco, West Fork of the San Gabriel River, and Devils Canyon, according to an assessment released today by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Conditions in many of the watersheds burned by the fire indicated high probabilities of producing large debris flows in response to two possible rainfall scenarios. In these scenarios, portions of neighborhoods faced increased risk of inundation by debris flows.
The USGS identified and mapped areas facing hazards posed by debris flows to assist state and local planners as they work to protect lives and property from these potentially destructive events.
“We’ve been working with the U.S. Forest Service, Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, and communities to ensure they have our information on the likelihood of debris flows,” said Susan Cannon, USGS Research Geologist. “Our assessment used a set of computer models to estimate the probability of debris flow, how large the event might be, and where it might go, based on the steepness of the area, the extent and severity of the fire, soil characteristics, and possible rainfall.”
For rainfall, the study evaluated the effects of a 3-hour duration, 1-year recurrence thunderstorm, and a longer 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Recurrence intervals indicate the probability of a storm happening in a given time period. For example, the storm with a 1-year recurrence interval has a near 100 percent chance of occurring, while the storm with a 2-year recurrence interval has a 50 percent chance.
Triggered by storm rainfall, debris flows can travel quickly—faster than a grown person can run—creating a dangerous situation that may occur with little to no notice. Debris flows are a type of landslide that flow through drainages picking up soil, rock and vegetation. The powerful force of rushing water, soil, and rocks can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and structures and can cause injury or death.
After wildfires they can they can occur in places where flooding or debris flows have not been observed in the past and can be generated in response to very little rainfall.
The assessment found that some watersheds in the burn area could generate debris flows up to 100,000 cubic yards of material—large enough to fill approximately a football field 60 feet deep with mud and rock.
Gail Farber, LA County Public Works Director, said it was vital that at-risk communities, residents and local public safety agencies work together with Public Works to prepare for potential debris flows.
“We have been actively preparing for the storm season by inspecting all debris basins throughout the County and cleaning out those that need it to ensure full capacity,” Farber said.
“We are on schedule with our storm preparation activities and are meeting with hillside residents in burn areas to provide them with engineering assessments and advice on how best to protect their properties.”
“We are hoping for the best but preparing for a difficult storm season by working closely with local officials and residents to educate them on the potential risks and actions they can take to minimize the impact from debris flows,” Farber added.
Officials point to the debris flows that occurred following the 2003 San Bernardino fires as an example of what may happen this year.
“People may remember that 16 people were killed by debris flows during the Christmas Day storm in 2003, but few realize that those were only two debris flows out of the 100’s that were triggered from the burned area. Nearly every burned watershed produced destructive debris flows or floods in response to that storm,” said Cannon. “Some of the areas burned by the Station Fire show the highest likelihood for big debris flows that I’ve ever seen.”
The National Weather Service will issue Watches and Warnings specific to areas affected by the Station Fire.
Additional online resources are available for local residents including:
Fact Sheets
Post fire debris flows in southern California
NOAA/NWS Warning System
Websites
NOAA/USGS Early Warning Demonstration
Post Wildfire Landslide Hazards
Los Angeles County’s Coordinated Agencies Recovery Effort (C.A.R.E.)
PASADENA, Calif. – Rainstorms this year in the area burned by the Station Fire have the potential to trigger debris flows that may impact neighborhoods at the base of the San Gabriel Mountains as well as areas in Big Tujunga Canyon, Pacoima Canyon, Arroyo Seco, West Fork of the San Gabriel River, and Devils Canyon, according to an assessment released today by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Conditions in many of the watersheds burned by the fire indicated high probabilities of producing large debris flows in response to two possible rainfall scenarios. In these scenarios, portions of neighborhoods faced increased risk of inundation by debris flows.
The USGS identified and mapped areas facing hazards posed by debris flows to assist state and local planners as they work to protect lives and property from these potentially destructive events.
“We’ve been working with the U.S. Forest Service, Los Angeles County Department of Public Works, and communities to ensure they have our information on the likelihood of debris flows,” said Susan Cannon, USGS Research Geologist. “Our assessment used a set of computer models to estimate the probability of debris flow, how large the event might be, and where it might go, based on the steepness of the area, the extent and severity of the fire, soil characteristics, and possible rainfall.”
For rainfall, the study evaluated the effects of a 3-hour duration, 1-year recurrence thunderstorm, and a longer 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Recurrence intervals indicate the probability of a storm happening in a given time period. For example, the storm with a 1-year recurrence interval has a near 100 percent chance of occurring, while the storm with a 2-year recurrence interval has a 50 percent chance.
Triggered by storm rainfall, debris flows can travel quickly—faster than a grown person can run—creating a dangerous situation that may occur with little to no notice. Debris flows are a type of landslide that flow through drainages picking up soil, rock and vegetation. The powerful force of rushing water, soil, and rocks can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and structures and can cause injury or death.
After wildfires they can they can occur in places where flooding or debris flows have not been observed in the past and can be generated in response to very little rainfall.
The assessment found that some watersheds in the burn area could generate debris flows up to 100,000 cubic yards of material—large enough to fill approximately a football field 60 feet deep with mud and rock.
Gail Farber, LA County Public Works Director, said it was vital that at-risk communities, residents and local public safety agencies work together with Public Works to prepare for potential debris flows.
“We have been actively preparing for the storm season by inspecting all debris basins throughout the County and cleaning out those that need it to ensure full capacity,” Farber said.
“We are on schedule with our storm preparation activities and are meeting with hillside residents in burn areas to provide them with engineering assessments and advice on how best to protect their properties.”
“We are hoping for the best but preparing for a difficult storm season by working closely with local officials and residents to educate them on the potential risks and actions they can take to minimize the impact from debris flows,” Farber added.
Officials point to the debris flows that occurred following the 2003 San Bernardino fires as an example of what may happen this year.
“People may remember that 16 people were killed by debris flows during the Christmas Day storm in 2003, but few realize that those were only two debris flows out of the 100’s that were triggered from the burned area. Nearly every burned watershed produced destructive debris flows or floods in response to that storm,” said Cannon. “Some of the areas burned by the Station Fire show the highest likelihood for big debris flows that I’ve ever seen.”
The National Weather Service will issue Watches and Warnings specific to areas affected by the Station Fire.
Additional online resources are available for local residents including:
Fact Sheets
Post fire debris flows in southern California
NOAA/NWS Warning System
Websites
NOAA/USGS Early Warning Demonstration
Post Wildfire Landslide Hazards
Los Angeles County’s Coordinated Agencies Recovery Effort (C.A.R.E.)
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
NOAA Reports Health of Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary
FROM: NOAA
A new NOAA report on the health of California’s Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary indicates that the overall condition of the sanctuary’s marine life and habitat ranges from good (highest rating) to fair (moderate rating), but identifies several threats to sanctuary resources, such as growing coastal populations, agricultural and urban runoff, vessel traffic and marine debris.
“The sanctuary was designated because of its extraordinary resources and qualities, and this report confirms its continued vitality,” said Paul Michel, Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary superintendent. “But it also reveals that expanding human population and activities require adaptive management strategies to preserve the sanctuary today and into the future.”
Prepared by NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary Condition Report rates the current condition of three marine environments: offshore, nearshore and estuarine. Four resource categories were considered for each of those environments: water quality, habitat, living resources and maritime archaeological resources.
Offshore and nearshore environments are generally rated in the report as good (highest rating) to fair (moderate rating). In the nearshore, habitat-forming plants and animals, such as surfgrass, kelp and sponges, are healthy, according to the report. However, rockfish, salmon, and some seabird and marine mammal species have declined.
Proximity to dense population centers and agriculture is a factor in nearshore water quality. The boundary of Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary reaches to the shoreline for 276 miles along California’s coast. Beach water quality issues that are common throughout California, such as elevated pollutant levels, are also observed within the sanctuary.
The report also reflects a fair to poor rating for water quality, habitat and living resources in the estuarine environment of Elkhorn Slough, a part of the sanctuary. The sanctuary has already partnered with multiple agencies to implement strategies to restore estuarine habitats and improve water quality and the health of plants and animals in Elkhorn Slough.
NOAA formally began its stewardship of these resources in 1992. The report notes that many management and regulatory programs aimed at protecting and restoring resources are already in place in an effort to improve conditions in the sanctuary. The sanctuary updated its management plan in November 2008 to emphasize collaboration among agencies and programs to build ecosystem-based approaches to marine area management.
Emerging or poorly understood threats present new challenges to sanctuary resources. Global climate change is already impacting ocean chemistry, which is expected to affect marine biodiversity and biological productivity. Habitat quality and living resource conditions are impacted by pollutants, marine debris, changing ocean conditions and disease. Rising population growth in adjacent cities and counties, vessel traffic, as well as air and water pollution from outside the sanctuary’s boundaries are also a concern. New management strategies will be necessary to meet some of these emerging resource threats.
NOAA prepared the condition report in consultation with outside experts from the scientific community. The full report is available online.
The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary stretches along the central California coast and encompasses more than 6,094 square miles of ocean area. Renowned for its scenic beauty and remarkable productivity, the sanctuary supports one of the world’s most diverse marine ecosystems, including 33 species of marine mammals, 94 species of seabirds, 345 species of fishes and thousands of marine invertebrates and plants.
A new NOAA report on the health of California’s Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary indicates that the overall condition of the sanctuary’s marine life and habitat ranges from good (highest rating) to fair (moderate rating), but identifies several threats to sanctuary resources, such as growing coastal populations, agricultural and urban runoff, vessel traffic and marine debris.
“The sanctuary was designated because of its extraordinary resources and qualities, and this report confirms its continued vitality,” said Paul Michel, Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary superintendent. “But it also reveals that expanding human population and activities require adaptive management strategies to preserve the sanctuary today and into the future.”
Prepared by NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary Condition Report rates the current condition of three marine environments: offshore, nearshore and estuarine. Four resource categories were considered for each of those environments: water quality, habitat, living resources and maritime archaeological resources.
Offshore and nearshore environments are generally rated in the report as good (highest rating) to fair (moderate rating). In the nearshore, habitat-forming plants and animals, such as surfgrass, kelp and sponges, are healthy, according to the report. However, rockfish, salmon, and some seabird and marine mammal species have declined.
Proximity to dense population centers and agriculture is a factor in nearshore water quality. The boundary of Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary reaches to the shoreline for 276 miles along California’s coast. Beach water quality issues that are common throughout California, such as elevated pollutant levels, are also observed within the sanctuary.
The report also reflects a fair to poor rating for water quality, habitat and living resources in the estuarine environment of Elkhorn Slough, a part of the sanctuary. The sanctuary has already partnered with multiple agencies to implement strategies to restore estuarine habitats and improve water quality and the health of plants and animals in Elkhorn Slough.
NOAA formally began its stewardship of these resources in 1992. The report notes that many management and regulatory programs aimed at protecting and restoring resources are already in place in an effort to improve conditions in the sanctuary. The sanctuary updated its management plan in November 2008 to emphasize collaboration among agencies and programs to build ecosystem-based approaches to marine area management.
Emerging or poorly understood threats present new challenges to sanctuary resources. Global climate change is already impacting ocean chemistry, which is expected to affect marine biodiversity and biological productivity. Habitat quality and living resource conditions are impacted by pollutants, marine debris, changing ocean conditions and disease. Rising population growth in adjacent cities and counties, vessel traffic, as well as air and water pollution from outside the sanctuary’s boundaries are also a concern. New management strategies will be necessary to meet some of these emerging resource threats.
NOAA prepared the condition report in consultation with outside experts from the scientific community. The full report is available online.
The Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary stretches along the central California coast and encompasses more than 6,094 square miles of ocean area. Renowned for its scenic beauty and remarkable productivity, the sanctuary supports one of the world’s most diverse marine ecosystems, including 33 species of marine mammals, 94 species of seabirds, 345 species of fishes and thousands of marine invertebrates and plants.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
NOAA Announces $9 Million in Ocean Education Grants to National Aquariums
FROM: NOAA
NOAA today announced 11 grants totaling more than $9 million that will create new education projects in aquariums across the nation. The projects will educate visitors about the ocean and encourage better stewardship of the marine environment.
“We want to get people excited about the ocean and one of the best ways to do that is to work with our partners at the Association of Zoos and Aquariums to promote the development of new and exciting programs,” said Louisa Koch, director, NOAA Education. “The aquariums receiving these grants will reach millions of visitors who, we hope, will become better stewards of our ocean environment.”
The grants were made to the following organizations:
-- Aquarium of the Pacific, Long Beach, Calif.: “Aquarium of the Pacific's Ocean Science Center,” $985,306
-- Monterey Bay Aquarium Foundation, Monterey, Calif.: “Climate Change and the Ocean: Awareness to Action,” $913,593 and “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $502,050
-- National Aquarium in Baltimore, Inc.: “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $484,184
-- New England Aquarium Corporation, Boston: “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $504,726, and “Summer Science in New England: Ocean Education through Informal Science Centers,” $342,232
-- North Carolina Aquarium Society, Raleigh: “Using Marine Mammals to Communicate Solutions to Ocean Issues,” $580,339
-- Sea Research Foundation (in association with Mystic Aquarium), Mystic, Conn.: “Exploring Inner Space: Linking Aquariums with Ocean Scientists,” $1,799,964
-- Shedd Aquarium Society, Chicago: “Shedd‐NOAA Partnership for Student, Teacher and Public Engagement,” $1,100,000
-- Tennessee Aquarium, Chattanooga: “Connecting Tennessee to the World Ocean,” $1,275,903
-- The Florida Aquarium, Inc., Tampa: “Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative,” $627,082
The projects were selected based on the importance, relevance and applicability of stated goals; technical and scientific merit; overall qualification of the proposing applicants; feasibility of the project to meet time and cost goals; and whether the project provides a focused and effective education and outreach strategy related to NOAA’s mission to protect the nation’s natural resources.
The aquariums that received the grants are accredited by the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA).
"AZA-accredited aquariums reach millions of people with engaging science education programs - a perfect match for NOAA education programs on ocean and climate literacy," said AZA President and CEO Jim Maddy. "NOAA is a great partner and we look forward to working together on our shared mission."
The projects feature plans for sharing evaluation results and project impacts through presentations and peer-reviewed publications. Evaluation reports will also be posted online, a website supported by the National Science Foundation, in an effort to further inform the broad field of informal science education about what is learned from the projects.
NOAA today announced 11 grants totaling more than $9 million that will create new education projects in aquariums across the nation. The projects will educate visitors about the ocean and encourage better stewardship of the marine environment.
“We want to get people excited about the ocean and one of the best ways to do that is to work with our partners at the Association of Zoos and Aquariums to promote the development of new and exciting programs,” said Louisa Koch, director, NOAA Education. “The aquariums receiving these grants will reach millions of visitors who, we hope, will become better stewards of our ocean environment.”
The grants were made to the following organizations:
-- Aquarium of the Pacific, Long Beach, Calif.: “Aquarium of the Pacific's Ocean Science Center,” $985,306
-- Monterey Bay Aquarium Foundation, Monterey, Calif.: “Climate Change and the Ocean: Awareness to Action,” $913,593 and “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $502,050
-- National Aquarium in Baltimore, Inc.: “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $484,184
-- New England Aquarium Corporation, Boston: “A National Coalition of Aquariums Educating about Climate Change,” $504,726, and “Summer Science in New England: Ocean Education through Informal Science Centers,” $342,232
-- North Carolina Aquarium Society, Raleigh: “Using Marine Mammals to Communicate Solutions to Ocean Issues,” $580,339
-- Sea Research Foundation (in association with Mystic Aquarium), Mystic, Conn.: “Exploring Inner Space: Linking Aquariums with Ocean Scientists,” $1,799,964
-- Shedd Aquarium Society, Chicago: “Shedd‐NOAA Partnership for Student, Teacher and Public Engagement,” $1,100,000
-- Tennessee Aquarium, Chattanooga: “Connecting Tennessee to the World Ocean,” $1,275,903
-- The Florida Aquarium, Inc., Tampa: “Climate Change Community Outreach Initiative,” $627,082
The projects were selected based on the importance, relevance and applicability of stated goals; technical and scientific merit; overall qualification of the proposing applicants; feasibility of the project to meet time and cost goals; and whether the project provides a focused and effective education and outreach strategy related to NOAA’s mission to protect the nation’s natural resources.
The aquariums that received the grants are accredited by the Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA).
"AZA-accredited aquariums reach millions of people with engaging science education programs - a perfect match for NOAA education programs on ocean and climate literacy," said AZA President and CEO Jim Maddy. "NOAA is a great partner and we look forward to working together on our shared mission."
The projects feature plans for sharing evaluation results and project impacts through presentations and peer-reviewed publications. Evaluation reports will also be posted online, a website supported by the National Science Foundation, in an effort to further inform the broad field of informal science education about what is learned from the projects.
Monday, October 05, 2009
Water releases to bring new life to parts of San Joaquin River
From: Los Angeles Times
By Bettina Boxall
Something is about to happen on California's second-longest river that hasn't happened this time of year since Harry Truman was president.
Water is going to start flowing down two stretches of the San Joaquin that have been sucked dry since Friant Dam began diverting most of the river into two giant irrigation canals.
Today dam managers will crank up releases of water into the San Joaquin as part of an ambitious restoration program intended to return chinook to the once salmon-rich river by late 2012.
The increased flow, which will last six weeks, is the first of several years of test releases to help scientists gauge the effect of restoring year-round flows to a river that shrivels to dust for 60 miles.
Immediately below the dam, which sits in the Sierra foothills northeast of Fresno, the release will be barely perceptible.
"It's hard to visually see that change," said Monty Schmitt of the Natural Resources Defense Council, which led a two-decade-long court fight to let the San Joaquin keep more of its water.
"The real change is going to happen 38 miles downstream when the water gets to Gravelly Ford, where it's bone dry and the river will slowly creep back into life."
Except during flooding in exceptionally wet years, that and another stretch of the San Joaquin have been dead for more than half a century.
Scientists will monitor the new flow's temperature, depth, water quality and path. Does the renewed river stay in its dusty bed or spread onto adjacent cropland? How do the flows deposit sediment that can nourish salmon spawning beds?
Come spring, another, slightly larger test release will be made.
"This is truly amazing given the number of people who once said it would never happen. And now we are a day away," Schmitt said Wednesday.
By Bettina Boxall
Something is about to happen on California's second-longest river that hasn't happened this time of year since Harry Truman was president.
Water is going to start flowing down two stretches of the San Joaquin that have been sucked dry since Friant Dam began diverting most of the river into two giant irrigation canals.
Today dam managers will crank up releases of water into the San Joaquin as part of an ambitious restoration program intended to return chinook to the once salmon-rich river by late 2012.
The increased flow, which will last six weeks, is the first of several years of test releases to help scientists gauge the effect of restoring year-round flows to a river that shrivels to dust for 60 miles.
Immediately below the dam, which sits in the Sierra foothills northeast of Fresno, the release will be barely perceptible.
"It's hard to visually see that change," said Monty Schmitt of the Natural Resources Defense Council, which led a two-decade-long court fight to let the San Joaquin keep more of its water.
"The real change is going to happen 38 miles downstream when the water gets to Gravelly Ford, where it's bone dry and the river will slowly creep back into life."
Except during flooding in exceptionally wet years, that and another stretch of the San Joaquin have been dead for more than half a century.
Scientists will monitor the new flow's temperature, depth, water quality and path. Does the renewed river stay in its dusty bed or spread onto adjacent cropland? How do the flows deposit sediment that can nourish salmon spawning beds?
Come spring, another, slightly larger test release will be made.
"This is truly amazing given the number of people who once said it would never happen. And now we are a day away," Schmitt said Wednesday.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
Science group to study environmental measures affecting California water deliveries
FROM: Los Angeles Times
By Bettina Boxall
In a bow to a summer of angry complaints about water cutbacks to Central Valley farms, the Obama administration said Wednesday it would invite the National Academy of Sciences to examine the environmental measures restricting some water shipments from Northern California.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he would ask the academy to conduct an independent review of the science underpinning federal pumping limits imposed under the Endangered Species Act to protect smelt and salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
In a letter to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who had requested the review, Salazar said he was confident that the fish protections were "scientifically sound." But he said he would like the academy to determine if there were other actions that could be taken that would have less of an effect on water supply.
The announcement came on the same day that Salazar held a public hearing in Washington on California's water shortages, caused by a three-year drought and mounting environmental problems in the delta, the conduit for water shipments to the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California.
The delivery cutbacks have hit agribusiness on the west side of the valley the hardest because they have junior rights in the huge federal irrigation project that supplies much of the region.
State water officials say most of the delivery cuts from the delta are the result of drought -- not the fish protections -- but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Central Valley congressmen have repeatedly denounced the endangered species restrictions as placing fish above people.
Responding to similar rhetoric at the hearing, Salazar said it was wrong to blame California's water problems on environmental regulations.
"Labeling this as a man-made disaster, a regulatory drought, ignores the real issues," he said.
Cynthia Koehler, senior consulting attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund, which is active on delta issues, said she did not interpret Salazar's academy request as an attempt to undermine the federal reports, called biological opinions, that are the basis of the pumping limits.
"They're asking for a broad analysis of what is going on . . . and we're comfortable with that," she said, adding that the academy had "the nation's best scientific minds."
Salazar also announced that six federal agencies had signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on delta issues. And he urged Schwarzenegger to call a special legislative session to take up a package of water proposals, many of which deal with the delta.
By Bettina Boxall
In a bow to a summer of angry complaints about water cutbacks to Central Valley farms, the Obama administration said Wednesday it would invite the National Academy of Sciences to examine the environmental measures restricting some water shipments from Northern California.
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said he would ask the academy to conduct an independent review of the science underpinning federal pumping limits imposed under the Endangered Species Act to protect smelt and salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta.
In a letter to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), who had requested the review, Salazar said he was confident that the fish protections were "scientifically sound." But he said he would like the academy to determine if there were other actions that could be taken that would have less of an effect on water supply.
The announcement came on the same day that Salazar held a public hearing in Washington on California's water shortages, caused by a three-year drought and mounting environmental problems in the delta, the conduit for water shipments to the San Joaquin Valley and Southern California.
The delivery cutbacks have hit agribusiness on the west side of the valley the hardest because they have junior rights in the huge federal irrigation project that supplies much of the region.
State water officials say most of the delivery cuts from the delta are the result of drought -- not the fish protections -- but Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Central Valley congressmen have repeatedly denounced the endangered species restrictions as placing fish above people.
Responding to similar rhetoric at the hearing, Salazar said it was wrong to blame California's water problems on environmental regulations.
"Labeling this as a man-made disaster, a regulatory drought, ignores the real issues," he said.
Cynthia Koehler, senior consulting attorney for the Environmental Defense Fund, which is active on delta issues, said she did not interpret Salazar's academy request as an attempt to undermine the federal reports, called biological opinions, that are the basis of the pumping limits.
"They're asking for a broad analysis of what is going on . . . and we're comfortable with that," she said, adding that the academy had "the nation's best scientific minds."
Salazar also announced that six federal agencies had signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on delta issues. And he urged Schwarzenegger to call a special legislative session to take up a package of water proposals, many of which deal with the delta.
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Weekly Drought Monitor - as of September 29th, 2009
Friday, October 02, 2009
San Andreas Fault Weakened by Quakes in Other Places
FROM: KTLA DT
LOS ANGELES -- Huge earthquakes can weaken seismic faults on the other side of the world, scientists in California said on Wednesday.
Their study coincided with a major 8.0-magnitude quake in the Pacific, unleashing a tsunami that killed scores of people in the Samoan islands and Tonga.
Seismologists led by Taka'aki Taira of the University of California at Berkeley found that the 9.1 monster that struck west of Sumatra in December 2004 weakened a closely-monitored segment on California's San Andreas fault, 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles) distant.
Their investigation is based on a scan of 22 years of data from the Parkfield area, a district so studded with borehole seismometers and other gauges that it has been dubbed "the earthquake capital of the world."
The monitors found that areas of fluid-filled fractures lie within this section of the fault.Driven by seismic pressure, the fluid migrates along the fault like spidery veins in marble, acting as a lubricant that enables shocks to pry open the rock, they believe.
Proof of this suspicion came with the finding that repetitive background quakes became smaller and smaller during periods of fluid shift -- in other words, as the fault slowly weakened, less energy was needed to shake it.
But the most remarkable finding was unexpected impacts from two big, distant quakes -- a 7.3-magnitude shake near the Californian town of Landers in 1992 and the 2004 Sumatra behemoth that unleashed the Indian Ocean tsunami.Almost five days after Sumatra event -- one of the biggest quakes in recorded history -- sensors noted dynamic stress on the Parkfield fault at a depth of five kilometres (three miles).
The study, published by the British weekly science journal Nature, provides compelling support for a novel theory that very big quakes can have a cascade effect elsewhere, sometimes months afterwards, say the researchers.
"The long-range influence of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on this patch of the San Andreas fault suggests that many of the world's active faults were affected in the same way, thus bringing a significant number of them to failure," the study says.
"This hypothesis appears to be supported by the unusually high number of quakes of magnitude eight or above occurring in the three years" after the 2004 event, it said.
"No other large earthquake, of magnitude eight or more, since 1900 was followed by as many for a comparable period," it observed.
The team hopes their work will yield a technique for assessing the strength of a seismic fault -- testing whether it has the strength to resist a shock or rip apart and threaten human life.
Discreet changes in the seismic wave, corresponding to periods when the numbers of small earthquakes intensifies, can be quantified into a means of pinpointing faults that are likely to fail, Taira believes.
Predicting when earthquakes will strike remains an over-the-horizon prospect, although strides have been made into assessing how stress builds up in a fault deep underground.
"Earthquakes are caused when a fault fails, either because of the buildup of stress or because of a weakening of the fault," said Taira in a press release.
"Changes in fault strength are much harder to measure than changes in stress, especially for faults deep in the crust.
Our results open up exciting possibilities for monitoring seismic risk and understanding the causes of earthquakes."
LOS ANGELES -- Huge earthquakes can weaken seismic faults on the other side of the world, scientists in California said on Wednesday.
Their study coincided with a major 8.0-magnitude quake in the Pacific, unleashing a tsunami that killed scores of people in the Samoan islands and Tonga.
Seismologists led by Taka'aki Taira of the University of California at Berkeley found that the 9.1 monster that struck west of Sumatra in December 2004 weakened a closely-monitored segment on California's San Andreas fault, 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles) distant.
Their investigation is based on a scan of 22 years of data from the Parkfield area, a district so studded with borehole seismometers and other gauges that it has been dubbed "the earthquake capital of the world."
The monitors found that areas of fluid-filled fractures lie within this section of the fault.Driven by seismic pressure, the fluid migrates along the fault like spidery veins in marble, acting as a lubricant that enables shocks to pry open the rock, they believe.
Proof of this suspicion came with the finding that repetitive background quakes became smaller and smaller during periods of fluid shift -- in other words, as the fault slowly weakened, less energy was needed to shake it.
But the most remarkable finding was unexpected impacts from two big, distant quakes -- a 7.3-magnitude shake near the Californian town of Landers in 1992 and the 2004 Sumatra behemoth that unleashed the Indian Ocean tsunami.Almost five days after Sumatra event -- one of the biggest quakes in recorded history -- sensors noted dynamic stress on the Parkfield fault at a depth of five kilometres (three miles).
The study, published by the British weekly science journal Nature, provides compelling support for a novel theory that very big quakes can have a cascade effect elsewhere, sometimes months afterwards, say the researchers.
"The long-range influence of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on this patch of the San Andreas fault suggests that many of the world's active faults were affected in the same way, thus bringing a significant number of them to failure," the study says.
"This hypothesis appears to be supported by the unusually high number of quakes of magnitude eight or above occurring in the three years" after the 2004 event, it said.
"No other large earthquake, of magnitude eight or more, since 1900 was followed by as many for a comparable period," it observed.
The team hopes their work will yield a technique for assessing the strength of a seismic fault -- testing whether it has the strength to resist a shock or rip apart and threaten human life.
Discreet changes in the seismic wave, corresponding to periods when the numbers of small earthquakes intensifies, can be quantified into a means of pinpointing faults that are likely to fail, Taira believes.
Predicting when earthquakes will strike remains an over-the-horizon prospect, although strides have been made into assessing how stress builds up in a fault deep underground.
"Earthquakes are caused when a fault fails, either because of the buildup of stress or because of a weakening of the fault," said Taira in a press release.
"Changes in fault strength are much harder to measure than changes in stress, especially for faults deep in the crust.
Our results open up exciting possibilities for monitoring seismic risk and understanding the causes of earthquakes."
Thursday, October 01, 2009
With care, the forest will live
FROM: Los Angeles Times
Animals took a serious blow during the Station fire, but the trees and other vegetation will flourish again. Just don't let the winter rains be heavy.
By Julie Cart
Brent Roath quickly recast the question. Yes, he agreed, the U.S. Forest Service scientists who have spent the last two weeks in the San Gabriel Mountains examining the effects of the Station fire are like forensic pathologists combing a crime scene.
Except in this case, the patient is still alive.
"We're more like doctors, and our patient is ill. We're trying to figure out how to make it better," said Roath, regional director of post-burn analysis and a 33-year Forest Service veteran.
Although the 45-member team's report will remain under wraps for some time, the preliminary findings are in: Don't pray for rain.
Using sophisticated burn maps generated by satellite imagery and factoring in the breathtaking steepness of the now-denuded hillsides, the scientists warn that even moderate winter rain could trigger landslides and catastrophic debris flows capable of inundating many of the San Gabriels' 37 foothill communities.
Beyond that, the scientists concluded that although 250 square miles of the Angeles National Forest burned, the trees and chaparral in the fire-adapted ecosystem will bounce back.
However, much of the wildlife that makes its home in the 655,000-acre forest was killed or dislocated. Biologists say they found an unusually high number of large animals caught by the fast-moving fire. Teams have come across carcasses of bears, mountain lions, bobcats, coyotes and gray foxes, apparently unable to find escape routes.
"Deer took a big hit," said Kevin Cooper, a wildlife biologist.
The BAER team (for Burned Area Emergency Response) worked 14-hour days to complete its work, retreating each night to laptops at the "BAER Den," a Residence Inn conference room in Burbank.
Specialists were on the ground in every part of the 160,000-acre burn area, measuring, photographing and testing. The team included soil scientists, hydrologists, archaeologists, botanists, wildlife experts and a hazardous materials crew. The fire peeled back a layer of cover to reveal unknown Native American oven sites, scores of illegal dumps and a stash of 50-gallon drums filled with an as-yet unidentified liquid.One day last week, Roath steered a white Forest Service SUV up the Angeles Crest Highway, which was closed to the public but nonetheless busy.
Crews used graders to clear boulders, semi-tractor-trailers hauled debris and workers with chain saws cut trees that threatened to fall across traffic lanes. Overhead, helicopters carried water-dropping buckets or ferried dangling loads of replacement utility poles.
For the most part, the landscape was devoid of color. Gray-white ash has banked in places, like dandruff on the shoulders of the mountains. Roath, a soil scientist who began his Forest Service career on the Angeles, is still awed by the immense natural forces once marshaled to lift this mountain range that is still rising and settling.
He noted that debris cones -- accumulated rock and sand at the bottom of sharply defined ridges -- are sprouting up everywhere, as though the mountains are shedding dead skin.
The San Gabriel Mountains have the potential to unleash calamity under normal circumstances, without the overlay of fire to complicate things. They are mountains on the move; the rock is fractured and disintegrating. Roath said that as BAER team members collected their data, they could hear the rattling sound of mountains falling.
"In some cases boulders are coming down from gravity alone. They don't need rain," Roath said.Vegetation plays a critical role in shoring up hillsides. When rains come, the drops hit the plant canopy first, which slows the water and distributes it more evenly into the soil. Absent vegetation, rain pounds down and washes away topsoil, sand, small rocks and burned plant material. Thus begins a process that scientists call "entraining" -- the terrible freight of broken mountainside that gathers energy as it roars inexorably downhill. Storms cause sediment to back up in ravines already loaded with fire debris.
The flow bulges and spreads, picking up larger stones, then boulders.
It gains speed as it descends, blowing obstacles out of its way.
That debris, too, joins the train. As highway culverts become full, the entire river of rock flows over the roadway, collapsing it. ===MORE>>
Animals took a serious blow during the Station fire, but the trees and other vegetation will flourish again. Just don't let the winter rains be heavy.
By Julie Cart
Brent Roath quickly recast the question. Yes, he agreed, the U.S. Forest Service scientists who have spent the last two weeks in the San Gabriel Mountains examining the effects of the Station fire are like forensic pathologists combing a crime scene.
Except in this case, the patient is still alive.
"We're more like doctors, and our patient is ill. We're trying to figure out how to make it better," said Roath, regional director of post-burn analysis and a 33-year Forest Service veteran.
Although the 45-member team's report will remain under wraps for some time, the preliminary findings are in: Don't pray for rain.
Using sophisticated burn maps generated by satellite imagery and factoring in the breathtaking steepness of the now-denuded hillsides, the scientists warn that even moderate winter rain could trigger landslides and catastrophic debris flows capable of inundating many of the San Gabriels' 37 foothill communities.
Beyond that, the scientists concluded that although 250 square miles of the Angeles National Forest burned, the trees and chaparral in the fire-adapted ecosystem will bounce back.
However, much of the wildlife that makes its home in the 655,000-acre forest was killed or dislocated. Biologists say they found an unusually high number of large animals caught by the fast-moving fire. Teams have come across carcasses of bears, mountain lions, bobcats, coyotes and gray foxes, apparently unable to find escape routes.
"Deer took a big hit," said Kevin Cooper, a wildlife biologist.
The BAER team (for Burned Area Emergency Response) worked 14-hour days to complete its work, retreating each night to laptops at the "BAER Den," a Residence Inn conference room in Burbank.
Specialists were on the ground in every part of the 160,000-acre burn area, measuring, photographing and testing. The team included soil scientists, hydrologists, archaeologists, botanists, wildlife experts and a hazardous materials crew. The fire peeled back a layer of cover to reveal unknown Native American oven sites, scores of illegal dumps and a stash of 50-gallon drums filled with an as-yet unidentified liquid.One day last week, Roath steered a white Forest Service SUV up the Angeles Crest Highway, which was closed to the public but nonetheless busy.
Crews used graders to clear boulders, semi-tractor-trailers hauled debris and workers with chain saws cut trees that threatened to fall across traffic lanes. Overhead, helicopters carried water-dropping buckets or ferried dangling loads of replacement utility poles.
For the most part, the landscape was devoid of color. Gray-white ash has banked in places, like dandruff on the shoulders of the mountains. Roath, a soil scientist who began his Forest Service career on the Angeles, is still awed by the immense natural forces once marshaled to lift this mountain range that is still rising and settling.
He noted that debris cones -- accumulated rock and sand at the bottom of sharply defined ridges -- are sprouting up everywhere, as though the mountains are shedding dead skin.
The San Gabriel Mountains have the potential to unleash calamity under normal circumstances, without the overlay of fire to complicate things. They are mountains on the move; the rock is fractured and disintegrating. Roath said that as BAER team members collected their data, they could hear the rattling sound of mountains falling.
"In some cases boulders are coming down from gravity alone. They don't need rain," Roath said.Vegetation plays a critical role in shoring up hillsides. When rains come, the drops hit the plant canopy first, which slows the water and distributes it more evenly into the soil. Absent vegetation, rain pounds down and washes away topsoil, sand, small rocks and burned plant material. Thus begins a process that scientists call "entraining" -- the terrible freight of broken mountainside that gathers energy as it roars inexorably downhill. Storms cause sediment to back up in ravines already loaded with fire debris.
The flow bulges and spreads, picking up larger stones, then boulders.
It gains speed as it descends, blowing obstacles out of its way.
That debris, too, joins the train. As highway culverts become full, the entire river of rock flows over the roadway, collapsing it. ===MORE>>
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