Another beautiful day...

Wet winter builds above-average Sierra snowpack

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 12:22:00 +0000

By Cathy Bussewitz, The Associated Press

SACRAMENTO - California's wet winter has left an above-average snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, boosting prospects for additional water deliveries to cities and farms, water officials said on Wednesday.

But the California Department of Water Resources cautioned that the winter rain and snow was not enough to fully offset three previous years of drought.

The average water content contained in the Sierra snowpack is 107 percent of normal, according to Wednesday's snow survey, the third of five that will be conducted this winter. Last year at this time, the water content was 80 percent of normal.

The snowpack is important because its runoff provides much of the state's water supply in the summer.

If wet weather continues, the department says the State Water Project will be able to deliver 35 percent to 45 percent of requested amounts of water.

But the water level is not enough to end the drought, said Frank Gehrke, Chief of California Snow Surveys. He explained that though the state didn't lose any water content, it gained less than he hoped in the February because there were a few weeks without snow.

"We're kind of marching in place in terms of what it means for reservoir recovery," Gehrke said.

Despite recent storms, the water level at Lake Oroville, the principal storage reservoir for the State Water Project, was only at 55 percent of average for this time of year.

Electronic sensor readings showed the northern Sierra snow water equivalents at 126 percent of normal, central Sierra at 93 percent, and southern Sierra at 109 percent.
"We must remember that even a wet winter will not fully offset three consecutive dry years or pumping restrictions to protect Delta fish, so we must continue to conserve and protect our water resources," said Mark Cowin, director of the Department of Water Resources.

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of March 2nd, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sat, 06 Mar 2010 17:00:00 +0000

Undersea Arctic methane could wreak havoc on climate

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:34:00 +0000

FROM: USA Today

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

It lurks beneath the sea.

No, not The Blob, but something perhaps far more sinister: methane, a potent greenhouse gas 30 times better than carbon dioxide at trapping atmospheric heat.

Research released Thursday finds that underground methane appears to be seeping through the Arctic Ocean floor and into the Earth's atmosphere, thanks to a weakening of the protective layer of permafrost at the bottom of the ocean. Once released into the atmosphere, methane could wreak havoc with the world's climate.

Although scientists have known about the methane under the Arctic— and its potential for leakage — since the 1990s, the study is the first to document it to this degree.

"The release to the atmosphere of only 1% of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow hydrate deposits" could increase the level of atmospheric methane worldwide by three or four times, says the study's lead author, Natalia Shakhova, a researcher at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks. That could trigger abrupt climate warming, the authors report. But the specific climate consequences are hard to predict, they say.

The researchers studied the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, a section of the Arctic Ocean just north of Siberia.

Historically, methane concentrations in the world's atmosphere have ranged between 0.3 and 0.4 parts per million in cool periods to 0.6 to 0.7 in warm periods. Current methane concentrations in the Arctic average about 1.85 parts per million, the scientists said, the highest in 400,000 years.

"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," Shakhova says. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable cap."

Permafrost, which occurs throughout the Arctic, is a layer of soil or rock at which the temperature has been continuously below 32 degrees for at least several years, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Methane is released when organic material in the thawing permafrost decomposes, which gradually releases methane. It also can be released directly as stored methane already in the permafrost is released as it thaws.

Why is the permafrost failing? According to the study, the process occurs naturally over thousands of years but is being accelerated by man-made climate warming. "Sustained release of methane to the atmosphere from thawing Arctic permafrost is a likely positive feedback to climate warming," the authors write in the study, which appears in the new edition of the journal Science.

The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is an additional concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it reaches the surface. In the shallow East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply doesn't have enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere.

This is a new topic, Shakhova concedes, and the findings are only a starting point for further study.

"We're at the very beginning of studying this topic," Shakhova says. "This has never been incorporated into climate models."

Contributing: Associated Press

Blusterly, partly cloudy morning in the desert

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:40:00 +0000

Photo taken: Thursday morning, March 4th, 2010

Chile Quake Speeds Up Earth's Rotation, Trims Day

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 18:23:00 +0000

NEW YORK (AP) - Earth's days may have gotten a little bit shorter since the massive earthquake in Chile, but don't feel bad if you haven't noticed.

The difference would be only about one-millionth of a second.
Richard Gross, a scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and colleagues calculated that Saturday's quake shortened the day by 1.26 microseconds. A microsecond is one-millionth of a second.
The length of a day is the time it takes for the planet to complete one rotation - 86,400 seconds or 24 hours.
An earthquake can make Earth rotate faster by nudging some of its mass closer to the planet's axis, just as ice skaters can speed up their spins by pulling in their arms. Conversely, a quake can slow the rotation and lengthen the day if it redistributes mass away from that axis, Gross said Tuesday.
Gross said the calculated changes in length of the day are permanent. So a bunch of big quakes could add up to make the day shorter, "but these changes are very, very small."
So small, in fact, that scientists can't record them directly. Gross said actual observations of the length of the day are accurate to five-millionths of a second. His estimate of the effect of the Chile quake is only a quarter of that span.
"I'll certainly look at the observations when they come in," Gross said, but "I doubt I'll see anything."

On the Net:

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/index.cfm

State may ban plants from using ocean as coolant

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Mon, 01 Mar 2010 20:26:00 +0000

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- State water board regulators are mulling a plan to stop power companies from vacuuming the ocean for water to cool their machinery.

Environmentalists say the practice destroys too much sea life, while utility advocates say the impact is minimal. They say banning the practice would cost too much, jeopardize the reliability of the electricity grid and slow the state's transition to clean energy.

The State Water Resources Control Board's proposal would require plants to supplant seawater pipes with massive cooling towers that recycle water. Power plants could also use air-cooling platforms.

It was not immediately clear when the board would vote on the issue.

Scientists develop more accurate snow forecasts

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 20:35:00 +0000

FROM: USA Today

So how much snow are we going to get? The seemingly endless parade of wild winter storms has Americans wondering how much snow the next storm will bring, and they expect their local meteorologists to have all the answers. A new forecasting method may soon be available to help.

When predicting snow amounts as a winter storm approaches, it's key for meteorologists to know the water content of the snow that's likely to fall. If the atmosphere is waterlogged, it will dump thick, cement-like snow, while a drier atmosphere produces fluffy, powdery snow.

Meteorologists at the University of Utah say they've come up with an easy way to predict snowfall amounts and density.

"We've developed a formula that predicts the water content of snow as a function of temperature and wind speed," says the study's senior author, Jim Steenburgh, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah.

The method has been adopted by the National Weather Service for use throughout Utah, and the scientists say it could be adjusted for use anywhere.

"This is about improving snowfall amount forecasts -- how much snow is going to fall," says Steenburgh. "As a nice side benefit for the ski community, this will tell you whether you're going to get powder or concrete when it snows."

The new method "is also helpful to avalanche forecasters," says the study's first author, Trevor Alcott, a doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. "We're forecasting snow density, which is related to the stability of freshly fallen snow."

According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, 10 inches of fresh snow can contain as little as 0.10 inch of water (light and fluffy) or as much as 4 inches of water (heavy and wet), depending on crystal structure, wind speed, temperature, and other factors.

The Utah research team studied 457 winter storms during eight years at the Wasatch Range at Utah's Alta Ski Area. Alta provided numerous snowstorms that could be analyzed and used to develop the snow density formula.

The snow depth of the new snow was divided by the depth of water measured by a rain gauge to determine actual snow density and see what variables best correlated with it.

The study showed that only two variables -- crest-level wind speeds and temperatures -- were needed to predict snow densities. "It's the KISS method -- keep it simple, stupid," Steenburgh says. "How much can we strip down the number of variables analyzed and get a good result?"

The research appears in the February issue of the journal Weather and Forecasting.

By Doyle Rice

Below-normal water deliveries to Southern California still forecast

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sat, 27 Feb 2010 18:33:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Bettina Boxall

It may be raining and snowing, but water managers are still forecasting below-normal deliveries this year for the state system that helps supply Southern California.

Storms have been filling Northern California's big federal reservoir, Shasta Lake, but have been steering clear of the region that drains into Lake Oroville, the main reservoir in the state system.
"Every rainstorm seems to sit over Shasta and bypass our reservoir," said Jerry Johns, deputy director of the state Department of Water Resources.

"We've picked up some storage in February, which has been great. But runoff is everything, and we're not getting a whole lot of inflow."

On Friday, the department released the latest in a series of delivery projections it makes during the rainy season.

It bumped up earlier estimates and said if weather patterns hold, it will increase allocations again for the State Water Project, which has typically provided the Southland with about a third of its water supply.

But Johns said that short of a deluge this spring, he didn't see how state deliveries could reach normal levels.

The news was better for the Central Valley Project, which draws from Shasta and supplies much of California's farm belt.

Federal officials said Friday that they hoped to give many agricultural contractors their full water allotments this year.

Shortages will continue on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, where irrigation districts have junior rights and are the first to face cuts. But it appears farms there will still get enough water to head off a controversial proposal by U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).

This month, she drafted a jobs bill amendment that would have weakened Endangered Species Act protections that are curbing water deliveries to the valley from Northern California's Sacramento-San Joaquin delta.

Feinstein's move won praise from the farm community, but it was sharply criticized by many fellow Democrats in California's congressional delegation. It set off a flurry of negotiations and meetings as Interior Department officials scrambled to supplement the west side's deliveries and placate Feinstein.

Department officials said Friday that they had devised a series of water swaps and changes in delivery schedules that could boost the west side's supplies 10% above what they would otherwise be, giving the area about 40% of its full allocation this year.

"We have stretched to do what we can for additional water supplies," said Deputy Interior Secretary David Hayes. "It's not magic. But we think it's achievable."

That satisfied Feinstein, at least for now. "This is very good news," she said in a statement. "I will watch this situation carefully, and I am placing my proposed amendment on hold; however, I reserve the right to bring it back should it become necessary."

Rep. George Miller (D-Martinez), one of the proposal's critics, said Feinstein's amendment "was universally recognized as a very bad idea. It leapfrogs over everybody else's legal rights, water rights and environmental concerns . . . You just can't do that."

The center of the west side's water shortages has been the Westlands Water District, a huge, politically influential irrigation district known for its aggressive tactics and fondness for lawsuits challenging environmental curbs on water deliveries.

Tom Birmingham, Westlands' general manager, said a 40% allocation means "the people who live and work on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley will be able to survive while we pursue long-term solutions."

The season's El Niño-driven storms have filled Shasta to normal levels for this time of year. But Lake Oroville is only about half as full as it should be. If average precipitation continues, water resources officials said, they expect the state project will deliver 35% to 45% of the amounts contractors want.

That means the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which imports water from the state project, will again be delivering less to its urban customers. "It's looking a lot like last year, frankly," said Jeffrey Kightlinger, Metropolitan's general manager. "We're not out of the woods yet."

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of February 23rd, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 13:42:00 +0000

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of February 16th, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Thu, 18 Feb 2010 14:20:00 +0000

United States' drought has 'extraordinary' reversal

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:38:00 +0000

FROM: USA Today

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

What a difference a rain makes. The nationwide drought that had farmers, communities and entire states fighting to conserve water has reversed in the most dramatic turnaround since federal scientists began keeping records.

More than 92% of the country is drought-free — the nation's best showing since 1999.

"The lack of drought is extraordinary," said Douglas Le Comte, a meteorologist with the federal Climate Prediction Center.

At the worst of the USA's most recent drought — in August 2007 — almost 50% of the country was involved. Currently, about 7% of the country is in a drought, according to federal scientists. The only part of the USA in "extreme" drought is a small fraction of Hawaii.

In 2007, gigantic portions of the Southeast were in the worst drought in more than a century, sparking water wars among Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

"It was horrid," said Teresa Hammack of Mars Hill, N.C., whose springs ran dry in August 2007 at the height of the Southeast drought. Hammack's home relies entirely on underground springs as a source of water.

"Our springs are running rampant, with clean, fresh water," she said.

There have been less than half a dozen occasions since the late 1800s when drought has been as sparse as it is now, Le Comte said.

Even before this month's massive snowfall totals, relief has come in a number of different ways:

• The West has been helped this winterby a Pacific train of storm systems laden with ample moisture. The storms, caused by the ongoing El Niño climate pattern, brought lots of rain and snow to the Southwest, including the normally arid deserts of Southern California and eastern Arizona, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

• The southern drought (across Texas, Louisiana and Florida) was eased by a very wet fall and winter, said David Miskus, a meteorologist with the Climate Prediction Center.

• Drought relief in the Southeast started a year or two ago, Miskus said. A number of wet weather systems, including Tropical Storm Fay in August 2008, chipped away at the drought, Le Comte said. By the spring of 2009, a number of soaking weather systems ended the drought in the Georgia area, he said.

"I guess it was time for Mother Nature to make up for the long-term subnormal precipitation with deluges," Miskus said.

In drought-plagued California, the "meteorological drought is pretty much over," said Le Comte.

However, hydrological drought – meaning a shortfall in water supply – remains a concern in the Golden State. The state is still "looking at a deficit in soil moisture," reports hydrologist Mike Mierzwa of the California Department of Water Resources. "We're still not caught up yet."

According to the federal Drought Monitor, California reservoir levels, after being down from several consecutive years of subnormal rain and snow, have started to recover, although most reservoirs have not reached normal capacity.

"We've gone from a very scary situation to an OK situation," said Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. "If it stays wet, we'll stay in an OK situation."

EPA's decision to regulate greenhouse gas emissions is challenged

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 12:30:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Jim Tankersley

Reporting from Washington - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced late Friday that it would challenge the Environmental Protection Agency's decision to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act, setting the stage for a protracted legal battle with the Obama administration over global warming.

The chamber said it was filing a petition with the agency challenging the EPA's process in determining that greenhouse gases endanger human health and are thus subject to Clean Air Act regulation. The challenge is likely to lead to a court battle.

Chamber officials said they support action in Congress and international treaty negotiations to reduce greenhouse gases. But they said the EPA overreached in acting on its own and produced a flawed finding that would lead to other poorly conceived regulations in the future.

An EPA spokeswoman said that although the agency had not seen the chamber's petition, the "EPA issued its endangerment finding as a result of a 2007 Supreme Court decision and after a thorough and transparent review of the soundest science available."

Steven J. Law, chief legal officer and general counsel of the chamber, said in a news release that the challenge would focus on "the inadequacies of the process that EPA followed in triggering Clean Air Act regulation, and not on scientific issues related to climate change."

Administration officials have defended the legality of the EPA's action but have repeatedly said that they also would prefer to limit greenhouse gases through Congress, though those efforts have stalled in the Senate.

Meanwhile, movements are underway in both the House and Senate to strip the EPA of the power to regulate greenhouse gases on its own.

NextEra, California City call truce in water war over solar power plant

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 12:30:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Todd Woody

A developer who proposes to cut down hundreds of trees to make way for a massive project could expect to provoke a fair amount of environmental outrage.

Not in California City. Officials in this sprawling desert community east of Bakersfield are thrilled at NextEra Energy's move to break out the chain saws.

The firm, a subsidiary of utility giant FPL Group, is seeking to build a solar power plant in the area that would consume a large amount of water. The trees are tamarisks, a water-hungry invasive species, and removing them could help recharge the aquifer in this arid region.

"The water that normally would go into the tamarisk will go down into the basin -- it's a big environmental win," said Michael Bevins, California City's public works director.

The tree deal is just one way that what threatened to become another intractable fight over the environmental effect of desert solar power plants is turning into a blueprint for the resolution of similar disputes.

Proposals to build dozens of solar farms on hundreds of thousands of acres in the desert Southwest have split the environmental movement and divided local communities. For solar developers and some green groups, the projects are desperately needed in the fight against climate change; others see them as a threat to unique and fragile ecosystems.

Water has become a particular flash point. Solar thermal power plants use mirrors to heat liquids to create steam that drives an electricity-generating turbine. The steam must be condensed and the hot water cooled for reuse. The cheapest and most efficient way to do that is wet cooling, which lets the heat evaporate but requires the constant replacement of water.

By last fall, NextEra's 250-megawatt Beacon Solar Energy Project was mired in a war over water. The company wanted to tap more than half a billion gallons a year from freshwater wells to cool the solar farm to be built on former farmland.

State policy prohibits the use of drinking water for power plant cooling, and local residents lined up at public hearings to express concern that the solar farm would drain their aquifer.

"Everybody else in the state of California is trying to conserve water and here all at once, boom, you guys are using it all up on us," said Ace Miller, an area resident, at one hearing.

With energy commission staffers and NextEra at loggerheads, executives warned last year that they might have to abandon the $1-billion project -- and the hundreds of construction jobs it would create -- because they claimed that Beacon wouldn't be sufficiently profitable unless they could use well water.

Energy commission staffers weren't about to budge.

"We clearly felt that this was a significant issue, not just in the context of this isolated project but also in the context that we are going to see a large number of solar power plants in the desert," said Terry O'Brien, a deputy director at the California Energy Commission, which licenses large-scale solar thermal power plants. "If we use water more efficiently, we can generate more megawatts."

But NextEra is now talking with two local municipalities, California City and Rosamond, about buying reclaimed water to cool the power plant. That would allow the company to sidestep a fight over water use while giving the cities a market for their treated wastewater.

Energy commission staffers filed documents two weeks ago that would let the Beacon project proceed as long as it used reclaimed water for cooling.

"We debated the reclaimed water issue for the last year or so, and we've come to a conclusion that unless we want to go round and round on this matter for months, if not years more, it was time to compromise," said Michael O'Sullivan, a senior vice president at NextEra.

The compromise offers other environmental benefits as well. Treated wastewater contains salt and nitrates, and by piping it to Beacon rather than returning it to the aquifer, the cities can improve the basin's water quality.

Since the solar farm will still draw freshwater until enough reclaimed water can be provided, NextEra proposed to remove thirsty tamarisk trees to help recharge the aquifer. A native of the Mediterranean, the tamarisk was brought to the American West in the 19th century for use as a windbreak. The developer of California City planted hundreds of the trees in the area, Bevins said.

An acre of tamarisks can consume 1 million gallons of water annually, said Tim Carlson, research and policy director for the Tamarisk Coalition, a Grand Junction, Colo., nonprofit group working to eradicate the trees.

Regulators welcomed NextEra's proposal to remove tamarisks, which have taken over 1 million acres in the West.

"If we could eliminate tamarisk from large areas of the West, it would have a benefit to wildlife, native vegetation and would reduce water usage," O'Brien said.

The proposal is still in the planning stages, and it's unclear how many trees would be removed and just how much water would be saved.

Carlson, who has discussed NextEra's plan with the company's consultants, said tamarisks must be replaced with low-water-use native plants. "It's not a simple calculation," he said. "You just can't say that if I do so many acres I'll save so many acre-feet of water."

For O'Brien, ending the Beacon water war could help persuade other solar companies to adopt water-efficient technology and approaches. "It sends a signal to other developers that clearly that NextEra believes that their project is still viable," he said.

Study finds traffic pollution can speed hardening of arteries

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 12:28:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Margot Roosevelt

Los Angeles residents living near freeways experience a hardening of the arteries that leads to heart disease and strokes at twice the rate of those who live farther away, a study has found.

The paper is the first to link automobile and truck exhaust to the progression of atherosclerosis -- the thickening of artery walls -- in humans. The study was conducted by researchers from USC and UC Berkeley, along with colleagues in Spain and Switzerland, and published this week in the journal PloS ONE.

Researchers used ultrasound to measure the carotid artery wall thickness of 1,483 people who lived within 100 meters, or 328 feet, of Los Angeles freeways. Taking measurements every six months for three years, they correlated their findings with levels of outdoor particulates -- the toxic dust that spews from tailpipes -- at the residents' homes.

They found that artery wall thickness in study participants accelerated annually by 5.5 micrometers -- one-twentieth the thickness of a human hair -- more than twice the average progression.

According to co-author Howard N. Hodis, director of the Atherosclerosis Research Unit at USC's Keck School of Medicine, the findings show that "environmental factors may play a larger role in the risk for cardiovascular disease than previously suspected."

UC Berkeley co-author Michael Jerrett noted that "for the first time, we have shown that air pollution contributes to the early formation of heart disease, known as atherosclerosis, which is connected to nearly half the deaths in Western societies. . . . By controlling air pollution from traffic, we may see much larger benefits to public health than we previously thought."

The study comes at a time of growing alarm over the effects of freeway pollution on nearby schools and homes. In the four-county Los Angeles Basin, 1.5 million people live within 300 meters, or 984 feet, of major freeways.

The Natural Resources Defense Council is battling in federal court to overturn the caps on motor-vehicle emissions set by Southern California air quality officials, saying that they fail to account for higher pollution near freeways.

And Los Angeles and Long Beach residents are fighting expansion of the truck-clogged 710 Freeway, saying it will lead to higher rates of asthma, heart disease and cancer in densely populated areas.

In July, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency launched a major study of traffic pollution near Detroit roadways to examine whether it leads to severe asthma attacks in children.

More than a third of Californians report that they or a family member suffer from asthma or respiratory problems, according to a survey last year. The Obama administration is proposing tighter standards for two vehicle-related pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ground-level ozone, the chief component of smog.

Report: El Nino fueled record global warmth in January

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 13:32:00 +0000

FROM: USA TODAY

Due to a strong El Nino climate pattern, the Earth's temperature in January 2010 was the warmest it's been in January in 32 years, according to climate scientists from the University of Alabama-Huntsville. El Nino is a periodic natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which also heats the atmosphere to above-average levels, and can affect weather worldwide.

"This has the potential of breaking the records set in February and April 1998, during the 'El Nino of the Century,'" atmospheric scientist John Christy said. "I looked at sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific and it wasn't as warm as 1998, but what is there is spread out further than it was in 1998. That exposes the atmosphere to a lot of extra heat."

Overall, the Earth was about 1.3 degrees above average in January.

Is global warming strengthening El Ninos? No, says Christy. "I haven't seen any evidence that El Ninos are becoming more intense," he wrote in an e-mail.

"Indeed, the last few have been very weak," he continued. "The current El Nino is moderately strong, but well below 1998 so far (I repeat ... so far). The main heat in January came from the subtropical areas, especially from the Sahara through Arabia and South Asia."

January 2010 was not only anomalously warm when compared to past Januarys, but also when compared to other months. It was the third-warmest month overall in 32 years (when compared to average), says Christy. In other words, only two months (April and February 1998) had a greater departure from average temperature than did January 2010.

Christy and fellow UAH scientist Roy Spencer use data gathered by microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.

The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about five miles above sea level.

Their data set is distinct from several other global climate data sets that record the Earth's temperature on a monthly basis. Others include those from NOAA, NASA, and the University of East Anglia in England.

By Doyle Rice

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of February 9th, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 16:41:00 +0000

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of February 2nd, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 15:28:00 +0000

Wind energy job growth isn't blowing anyone away

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:16:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Jim Tankersley

Reporting from Washington - America's wind energy industry enjoyed a banner year in 2009, thanks largely to tax credits and other incentives packed into the $787-billion economic stimulus bill.

But even though a record 10,000 megawatts of new generating capacity came on line, few jobs were created overall and wind power manufacturing employment, in particular, fell -- a setback for President Obama's pledge to create millions of green jobs.

Obama has long pitched green jobs, especially in the energy, transportation and manufacturing fields, as a prescription for long-term, stable employment and a prosperous middle class.

But those jobs have been slow to materialize, especially skilled, good-paying, blue-collar jobs such as assembling wind turbines, retrofitting homes to use less energy and working on solar panels in the desert.

On the campaign trail, Obama promised to create some 5 million green jobs over a decade. The stimulus bill approved last year allocated billions of dollars to the clean-energy sector. And the president continued to set high expectations for green-job creation in last week's State of the Union speech.

Administration officials admit that they are nowhere near that pace. Last month, government economists released their first tally of clean-energy jobs created or saved by the stimulus: 52,000.

Several factors accounted for the slow start, some of them linked to weakness in the overall economy. Electric power demand fell nationwide last year. Electricity from coal and natural gas is still by and large cheaper than wind or solar power. Renewable energy companies, faced with limited demand, often used parts and equipment in stock or imported renewable technology instead of building turbines or solar cells domestically.

Industry analysts and energy company executives said job growth is also hampered by lingering uncertainties in federal energy policy. Those include questions about when or whether existing tax breaks will expire and whether the Senate will pass a climate bill that would make fossil fuels more expensive -- and renewable energy more competitive.

The federal stimulus bill spared the wind and solar industries steep job losses last year, executives said.

In the wind industry, the bill saved about 40,000 factory, installation and maintenance jobs, according to the American Wind Energy Assn. The industry had gained as many as 2,000 installation and maintenance jobs in producing the record megawatts of new capacity, but wind power manufacturing lost just as many jobs, the trade group said.

Clean-energy leaders and many outside analysts added that green companies won't begin hiring in large numbers until the federal government mandates renewable power consumption nationwide and dramatically upgrades the nation's electric grid.

Wind turbine manufacturers "need more certainty" to add shifts and factories in the United States, said Elizabeth Salerno, director of data and analysis for the wind industry trade group.

"Demand is the trigger," she said. "But it has to be long-term, stable demand."

Obama's advisors said the biggest clean-energy benefits of the stimulus are still to come, and that they have planted the seeds for a green-job proliferation by financing worker training and leveraging tens of billions of dollars in private investment in green technology. The Energy Department projects that U.S. renewable power generation will grow four times faster from 2008 to 2012 than it would have without the stimulus.

"A lot more has to be done if we're going to realize the president's vision for a truly transformative clean-energy economy," said Jared Bernstein, Vice President Joe Biden's chief economist. "Our administration will pick up where [the stimulus] leaves off and finish the job. The president is completely committed to that."

Others said the administration's efforts, including stimulus grants and tax credits that fund some applicants but not others, may have pushed clean-energy investment dollars overseas, particularly to China. Since 2008, China has approved more solar-power capacity than the United States has installed in its history.

"The inconvenient truth for America's economic recovery is that China's Communist Party has cultivated a more favorable, predictable and hospitable market for private investments in clean-energy technology and energy infrastructure than the federal government of the United States," said Alexander "Andy" Karsner, a fellow at the Council on Competitiveness.

Energy Department officials said that instead of focusing on one or two technologies, they have funded a "portfolio of technologies" that will battle for a share of a growing domestic and global market.

"We are not in the business of picking winners," said Matt Rogers, a senior advisor at the Energy Department who oversees stimulus spending. "We're creating competition among innovative approaches in the marketplace."

Global clean-energy competition worries many of the staunchest champions of green jobs in Washington, including Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who chaired a hearing on solar jobs in the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee last week.

Among the executives testifying was Robert Rogan, senior vice president for ESolar Inc. in Pasadena. Rogan's young company secured contracts last year for 3,500 megawatts of solar power. One of its projects is set for California; another, in New Mexico, will create hundreds of construction jobs this year.

But the bulk of ESolar's power installations will come in China, which also provides some components of its solar plants.

In an interview, Rogan credited the stimulus for helping clean-energy companies through a "very bad" year in the American private finance market.

He insisted U.S. solar companies are poised for "explosive" growth, but that to maximize it, they need longer-term incentives and better transmission lines to link solar hot spots, such as the Southwest, and demand centers, such as the East Coast.

Stratospheric Water Vapor is a Global Warming Wild Card

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 13:36:00 +0000

FROM: NOAA

A 10 percent drop in water vapor ten miles above Earth’s surface has had a big impact on global warming, say researchers in a study published online January 28 in the journal Science. The findings might help explain why global surface temperatures have not risen as fast in the last ten years as they did in the 1980s and 1990s.

Observations from satellites and balloons show that stratospheric water vapor has had its ups and downs lately, increasing in the 1980s and 1990s, and then dropping after 2000. The authors show that these changes occurred precisely in a narrow altitude region of the stratosphere where they would have the biggest effects on climate.

Water vapor is a highly variable gas and has long been recognized as an important player in the cocktail of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, halocarbons, nitrous oxide, and others—that affect climate.

“Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near the surface. But this is different — it’s a thin wedge of the upper atmosphere that packs a wallop from one decade to the next in a way we didn’t expect,” says Susan Solomon, NOAA senior scientist and first author of the study.

Since 2000, water vapor in the stratosphere decreased by about 10 percent. The reason for the recent decline in water vapor is unknown. The new study used calculations and models to show that the cooling from this change caused surface temperatures to increase about 25 percent more slowly than they would have otherwise, due only to the increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

An increase in stratospheric water vapor in the 1990s likely had the opposite effect of increasing the rate of warming observed during that time by about 30 percent, the authors found.

The stratosphere is a region of the atmosphere from about eight to 30 miles above the Earth’s surface. Water vapor enters the stratosphere mainly as air rises in the tropics. Previous studies suggested that stratospheric water vapor might contribute significantly to climate change. The new study is the first to relate water vapor in the stratosphere to the specific variations in warming of the past few decades.

Authors of the study are Susan Solomon, Karen Rosenlof, Robert Portmann, and John Daniel, all of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in Boulder, Colo.; Sean Davis and Todd Sanford, NOAA/ESRL and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado; and Gian-Kasper Plattner, University of Bern, Switzerland.

Weekly Drought Monitor - as of January 26th, 2010

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:38:00 +0000

Emissions of Potent Greenhouse Gas Increase Despite Reduction Efforts

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:29:00 +0000

FROM: NOAA

Despite a decade of efforts worldwide to curb its release into the atmosphere, NOAA and university scientists have measured increased emissions of a greenhouse gas that is thousands of times more efficient at trapping heat than carbon dioxide and persists in the atmosphere for nearly 300 years.

The substance HFC-23, or trifluoromethane, is a byproduct of chlorodifluoromethane, or HCFC-22, a refrigerant in air conditioners and refrigerators and a starting material for producing heat and chemical-resistant products, cables and coatings.

“Without the international effort to reduce emissions of HFC-23, its emissions and atmospheric abundance would have been even larger in recent years,” said Stephen Montzka, a NOAA research chemist and lead author of the collaborative study between NOAA and university scientists. “As it was, emissions in 2006-2008 were about 50 percent above the 1990-2000 average.”

HFC-23 is one of the most potent greenhouse gases emitted as a result of human activities. Over a 100-year time span, one pound of HFC-23 released into the atmosphere traps heat 14,800 times more effectively than one pound of carbon dioxide. To date, the total accumulated emission of HFC-23 is small relative to other greenhouse gases, making this gas a minor (less than one percent) contributor to climate change at present.

Because HFC-23 is such a potent greenhouse gas, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has facilitated the destruction of substantial quantities of HFC-23 in developing countries since 2003. The study by Montzka and colleagues shows for the first time that even with these actions HFC-23 emissions from developing countries remained substantial compared to recent years.

The Montreal Protocol, which is the international agreement that phases out ozone-depleting substances, requires the end of HCFC-22 production by 2020 in developed countries and 2030 in developing counties for uses that result in the HCFC-22 escaping to the atmosphere. This Protocol does not restrict HCFC-22 production in the synthesis of fluoropolymers or the HFC-23 that is co-produced. The future atmospheric abundance of HFC-23 and its contribution to future climate change depends on amounts of HCFC-22 produced and the success of programs to reduce emissions of the co-generated HFC-23.

Scientists measured air collected from above the snow surface and down to 380 feet below the snow surface during field studies in Antarctica in 2001, 2005 and 2009. Using these results, they were able to determine how amounts of HFC-23 and other gases affecting climate and stratospheric ozone have changed in the recent past. The first published measurements of HFC-23 appeared in 1998 but this was the first time scientists examined how HFC-23 emissions have changed since 1996, particularly in developing nations and since the UNFCCC’s projects to reduce emissions began in 2003.

Monitoring changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases and assessing their implications are essential for predicting and understanding climate change and represent important aspects of NOAA’s climate services. This study was supported in part by NOAA’s Climate Program Office and the National Science Foundation.

Desert Mountain Snow PART II

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:38:00 +0000

Photo taken:
January 23rd, 2010

Is California's drought ending? It's too soon to say

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 20:23:00 +0000

FROM: Los Angeles Times

By Bettina Boxall

It's too early to know if California's three-year drought is ending, but the train of storms that plowed into California last week pushed the critical mountain snowpack to slightly above normal levels and sent water rushing into half-empty reservoirs.

At his office at Shasta Dam north of Redding, Brian Person watched the biggest reservoir in the state rise 4 to 5 feet a day on Wednesday and Thursday.

"Particularly following the abysmal hydrology of '07, '08 and '09, this is a fantastic experience," said Person, an area manager with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

In the Sierra Nevada, the storms that rode in on howling jet-stream winds dumped 4 to 6 feet of snow and boosted the water content of the snowpack by 20%.

"That's no shabby thing," said Maury Roos, the state's chief hydrologist.

Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center say a strong El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean and will continue into the spring, raising hopes for more of the same.

"There are no guarantees," said center deputy director Mike Halpert. "But things should be favorable . . . during the next couple of months for more storms moving through the jet stream and impacting California.

"These are the types of winters that are most beneficial to the water supply."

El Niño is a warming of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that influences weather patterns, often sending storms to California.

But Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory -- who has disagreed with federal forecasters in the past -- believes the current El Niño is a modest one and predicts another year of below average precipitation.

Patzert argues that the macho El Niños that drench the state and push rainfall amounts to record levels don't occur often.

"The impact of El Niño I think is exaggerated," he said.

The drought is not the worst the state has experienced in the modern era, but as a three-year period, it ranks in the driest 10%, Roos said.

The precipitation shortfalls have been bad enough to prompt water restrictions for urban customers around the state and to cut irrigation deliveries to agriculture, forcing some farmers to pump groundwater and leave fields unplanted.

In the last century, Roos said, California experienced two droughts that lasted six years: 1929 through 1934 and 1987 through 1992.

A drought in the late 1940s lasted four years.

But more often, he added, "In three years it's done -- and the year that ends it turns out to be a wet one.

"We can't say that this is going to be wet yet. But I'm optimistic that it will at least be above average."

As of Friday, the snowpack in the Northern Sierra was 117% of average for this time of year. Statewide it was 107% of the norm. The snowpack season runs from December through March.

Shasta Dam's reservoir, fed by the northern end of the Sacramento River and its tributaries, rose 24 feet in 10 days.

But until the state's major reservoirs return to normal levels, the drought is not over.

"We've got quite a hole in statewide storage," Roos said.

Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys program, is keeping his fingers crossed for the rest of the winter. Forecasts, he said, are just that.

"Until it's on the ground, I've seen too many situations where things just don't pan out."

Snow-Capped Desert Mountains

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 19:41:00 +0000

Photo taken:
January 23rd, 2010

Tsunamis May Telegraph Their Presence

noreply@blogger.com (SoCal WXMan) — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 18:30:00 +0000

FROM: NOAA

Tsunamis send electric signals through the ocean that appear to be sensed by the vast network of communication cables on the seabed, according to a new study led by Manoj Nair of the University of Colorado and NOAA.

Nair and his colleagues used computer models to estimate the size of an electric field created by the force of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as it traveled over major submarine cables. Salty seawater, a good conductor of electricity, generates an electric field as it moves through Earth’s geomagnetic field.

“We estimate that the 2004 tsunami induced voltages of about 500 millivolts (mV) in the cables. This is very small compared to a 9-volt battery, but still large enough to be distinguished from background noise on a magnetically quiet day,” Nair said. “By monitoring voltages across this network of ocean cables, we may be able to enhance the current tsunami warning system.”

But Nair cautioned that much research is still needed to effectively isolate the tsunami signals from other sources, such as Earth’s upper atmosphere, or ionosphere, whose signals can reach 100 mV. One millivolt is equivalent to one-thousandth of a volt.

Tsunamis are created by a large displacement of water resulting from earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and even meteors hitting the ocean. Vessels far out at sea may not notice the waves passing underneath at the speed of a jetliner, because the wave heights are very small in the deep ocean. This makes their detection and monitoring a challenge.

The current tsunami warning system relies on a global seismometer network to detect earthquakes that may indicate that a tsunami has formed. Deep-ocean pressure sensors and coastal tide gauges are the only tools available to detect and measure an actual tsunami. The electric current induced in submarine cables may provide an additional way to confirm and track a tsunami.

Since the 2004 tsunami, the international warning system has expanded to include 47 deep-ocean pressure sensors, most of them in the Pacific area. After an investment of more than $100 million and strong support of Congress, NOAA has made tsunami warnings and education a priority. Within the United States, real-time data from these deep ocean sensors are used to forecast the impact of the tsunami on U.S. shorelines.

Co-authors are Alexei Kuvshinov of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich, S. Neetu of the National Institute of Oceanography, India and T. Harinarayana of the National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad, India. Nair is also associated with NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science at the University of Colorado.

The study will appear in the February edition of the journal Earth, Planets and Space.